Good morning, Armchair Army,
Welcome to today's edition of The Armchair Analyst, a 5-minute daily update on the ASX life-sciences sector.
We're getting down to the pointy end of the World Cup.
The top 4.
Spain, France, Argentina and England.
(I'm going for the Poms here.)
Winning the whole tournament is hard.
It's a game of small edges.
But the one edge every team needs is its best players on the park.
Watching England vs Norway, something looked off about superstar Erling Haaland.
He was taken off late in the match, and that was essentially curtains on Norway's tournament.
Players get injured every week. That's football.
But managing injuries is key to any professional sports team.
Get it right, and you keep your best players on the park.
Get it wrong, and you're watching your star break down weeks after the comeback.
The company building the tech to get that call right is my latest Armchair Pick, Control Bionics (ASX: CBL).
A product called NeuroStrip an easy-to-apply device that detects electrical signals in the muscles to determine whether they are working properly.
So that when players like Erling Haaland (who is paid £525,000 per week) return from injury… they are okay to play without re-injuring themselves.
It comes down to two things.
Assessment: how well are the muscles actually performing?
Intervention: the small, targeted changes that improve.
I was lucky enough to visit the Control Bionics head office last Friday and get a one-on-one demonstration of the product from the head of sales, Alex Alvarado.
Are those Pilates classes paying off yet?
That little thing on my biceps?
That's NeuroStrip.
NeuroStrip is a medical device that has been in development for over 20-years.
It’s collecting the electrical signals being sent from my brain to my muscles, and then displaying them on the interface.
Control Bionics has launched this product to two different markets…
Sports performance and Rehabilitation.
(Only a handful of months ago)
Professional sports teams trialling the tech include GWS, Hawthorn, Rugby Australia, and Paris Saint-Germain.
Speaking to the head of sales, Alex, all introductions have come through word of mouth.
One team’s head of physio loves the product, tells his peer in another sport, and now Control Bionics is testing it with more and more potential customers.
The Neurostrip is manufactured in the US, and every time Control Bionics receives a new shipment to Australia, it goes right out the door to more sports teams for testing and use.
It’s still early days…
But this is a very good sign that Control Bionics is edging closer to product-market fit.
One thing that Alex said to me which stood out...
"When you're in front of customers, they realise this technology is truly world-class… and something they wish they had a LONG time ago."
Today is my deep dive into sports performance and rehabilitation and how Control Bionics is looking to build a business here.
Disclosure: Armchair Analyst Media Pty Ltd owns CBL shares and will own 1,458,518, if all resolutions are passed at the August General Meeting. CBL has also engaged Armchair Analyst for investor awareness services.
This information is general in nature and does not constitute personal financial advice.
Let’s dive in…
The Pulse Check
Health Canada has approved Clinuvel Pharmaceuticals' (ASX: CUV) product to treat a rare disease characterised by an allergic reaction to sunlight, enabling market access in Canada. (CUV, not held)
🪑 Nice milestone. Well done to the CUV team.
OncoSil Medical (ASX: OSL) completes manufacturing validation for OncoSil device, establishing a scalable Australian production capability. (OSL, not held)
Cleo Diagnostics (ASX: COV) enters the analytical validation phase for its ovarian cancer test kits, advancing towards FDA 510(k) submission anticipated in CY2027. (COV, not held)
🪑 Samples collected, test is ready, now it’s time to run them.
This is a prospective study, meaning that Cleo has recruited patients and is testing in a real-life environment.
Whereas IIQ’s study was retrospective (using old samples) that were ultimately unusable.
It takes longer to collect, but de-risks the study.
Patrys (ASX: PAB) secures 50% revenue share with Yale University in a deal to commercialise the deoxymab IP. (PAB, not held)
🪑 This deal marks PAB’s final transition of its old asset, Deoxymab. It has now handed the asset to Yale University, in exchange for 50% of the ‘upside’ - so that it can focus its attention and capital on its delirium asset.
Botanix Pharmaceuticals (ASX: BOT) extends its US patent for its drug for excessive sweating through to May 2040. (BOT, not held)
Immutep (ASX: IMM) reports results from the INSIGHT-003 trial on non-small cell lung cancer, with a median overall survival of 30.9 months and provides an update on its discontinued Phase 3 TACTI-004 trial. (IMM, not held)
🪑 We can see why the trial was discontinued.
The placebo arm was performing better than the drug.
IMM is doing a root cause analysis, and it appears (potentially) that the patients who didn’t react to the drug had a “markedly different immune activation profile”.
The analysis is still ongoing, and we’ll find out more later in the year.
Island Pharmaceuticals (ASX: ILA) signs a Statement of Work with Texas Biomed for its upcoming study using the Animal Rule pathway for fast-tracked approval. (ILA, not held)
🪑 Milestone ticked.
Vectus Biosystems (ASX: VBS) has engaged an advisor to advance various FDA communications regarding its lead compound, VB0004, for the treatment of idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis. (VBS, not held)
Big double spread in the AFR this weekend on the psychedelics market in Australia featuring Breathe Life Sciences (ASX: BLS | Not Held) and Emyria (ASX: EMD | Held) (AFR)
China-based InxMed published Phase II data for its FAK–KRAS combination (82% Response Rate) in lung cancer, validating the combination. (PR Newswire)
🪑 Further validation of the FAK-KRAS pathway, good news for ASX-listed Amplia (ASX: ATX).
Report Card
Orthocell Limited (ASX: OCC) reports $3.8M in revenue FYQ4 (up 18.75% qoq) and $13.2M for FY2026, driven by Remplir™ growth. (OCC, not held)
🪑 20% quarter-on-quarter topline growth from Orthocell is very solid. US sales still appear to be in the early stages, with just ~$330K for the quarter.
Pleased to read that clinical validation study on never-sparing for prostate cancer is on track. This is the use case that Surgeon Dan is most excited about with Orthocell (and it’s a product that he personally uses in his own surgeries).
Cryosite (ASX: CTE) reports a 18% revenue increase to $16.7M and a 27% rise in EBITDA to $4.3M for FY2026, driven by enhanced capacity utilisation. (CTE, not held)
🪑 Nice result.
EBITA Margins growing by 1.8% indicate better storage space utilisation.
InovIQ (ASX: IIQ) published its 4C report highlighting a cash balance of $9.3 million. (IIQ, not held)
🪑 Early quarterly report from IIQ.
Short 4C report and some good commentary from management on the issues with the previous clinical trial. It indicates that the team want to get on top of the narrative. Smart.
Visionflex Group Limited (ASX: VFX) reports a $0.7M operating cash inflow in Q4 FY26, with $2.1M in revenue. (VFX, not held)
🪑 Very solid quarter from Visionflex.
While revenue growth was only modest (6% up on pcp), the bottom line was significantly reduced, resulting in a cash-flow-positive quarter.
Nice work, team.
Under the Microscope
Last week I had the chance to visit Control Bionics and actually get my hands on the NeuroStrip for the first time.
(It’s a hot commodity; every single time the Australian team gets a shipment of NeuroStrips, they immediately get sent directly to customers)
I spent time with Alex Alvarado, who's been at the company for eight years.
Control Bionics started by selling assistive technology to people who could barely move or communicate.
Alex recounted his very first week on the job in 2018.
He flew up to Brisbane to help a person living with MND.
The patient hadn’t spoken in four years; he was effectively paralysed, but had the tiniest of movements in his finger.
They set him up on the NeuroNode product to detect this movement.
Surface EMG picks up muscle signals in the microvolt range, 1 millionth of a volt.
Think of it like a muscle "whisper".
All set up and ready to go, the patient’s wife started asking some yes-or-no questions.
Are we in Australia right now? Is it too hot in here? Do you like your shirt?
With this last question, the slider in the digital interface moved from "Yes" to "No".
For the first time in four years, that man had answered a question for himself.
I don’t like this shirt.
The room burst out laughing.
For years, everyone had been making decisions for him, and NeuroNode gave him the ability to make decisions again and put his life back in his own hands.
Alex put it simply: "I know there's someone sitting behind that trapped body; NeuroNode just helps them unlock it”.
This was Version #1 of Control Bionics.
While the assistive technology market is part of the original mission, it is also an incredibly hard (and competitive) market to sell into.
So, Control Bionics pivoted at the start of this year.
Still sell through the assistive technology markets but through third-party resellers.
Tobii and PRC.
(The #1 and #2 sellers of assistive technology in the US)
Now they are focusing internal sales efforts on new markets: Sports and Rehabilitation.
The plan?
Take the technology developed over 20 years, shrink it, and find a customer who will use it and can afford to pay for it.
How does the tech work?
I was lucky enough to try out the NeuroStrip for myself…
And honestly, it was a bit of a lightbulb moment in understanding Control Bionics.
It was…
Easy to set up.
Immediately provided value.
And the insights were intuitive - anyone could understand.
I could immediately see a world in which every professional sports team and physio rehab clinic had a NeuroStrip.
The first thing that stands out is the setup.
(It doesn’t really matter what’s at the other end of the product if the setup is hard)
It takes about 45 seconds to 1 minute to go from the case to an insight.
A custom case (with charging).
Custom adhesive that sticks the strip directly to the muscle.
One-click connection to set up the device.
All in 45 seconds.
The insights are intuitive too.
Here is a demonstration of me using the product:
And as you can see… my right bicep is weaker than my left.
That’s just the obvious insight to the untrained eye…
But for the professional physio, they can see the time under tension, the activation time, and the differences between muscles that are close together.
At this point I was impressed…
But to sell this thing, the tech had to be more than impressive; it had to solve a real-world problem.
So, I asked Alex to explain the current standard of care.
What Control Bionics is up Against?
Right now, the best tools in the physio’s toolkit are handheld dynamometers and force plates.
While these tools are good… they don’t tell the whole story.
Why is it that every week your favourite AFL player who has a “history of hamstring injuries” seems to get them again… and again… and again?
It’s because the force plate results may indicate the player is ready to come back…
But they’re actually not.
The hamstring is a complex muscle, comprising at least 3 distinct smaller muscle groups.
So what often happens is that one of these smaller muscles overcompensates for the other's weakness, masking that player's readiness to return.
The NeuroStrip can get granular.
Testing every single one of these muscles at a signal level.
Here is how NeuroStrip compares to the force plate:
You can see on the left that the force plate shows the hamstring is fine.
On the right, you can see that the NeuroStrip is capturing an issue between the left and right hamstrings.
This is because it captures the muscle's direct signal.
Not just the force applied (which can be masked by other muscles).
This makes for a better return-to-play decision.
So what is the value to a professional sports team?
Paris Saint-Germain is one of the professional sports teams trialling this tech.
PSG’s top player earns €350,000 per week.
Every week he is on the bench and out injured, it costs PSG hundreds of thousands of dollars (literally).
Just bringing him back one week early, without any increased risk of injury, not only gives the team a better chance to win but is also the right financial call.
But… like every new product, the company will need to make its way up the tech adoption curve to demonstrate value:
Early adopters will try the product, but we will know that Control Bionics has hit product-market fit once it starts landing some paying customers.
What’s the commercialisation strategy and where are things at?
Control Bionics soft-launched the NeuroStrip sports platform last quarter, introducing a new user interface and platform.
It's currently running pilot programs with several professional sports teams.
GWS, Hawthorn, Rugby Australia, and Paris Saint-Germain.
It's still very early.
What CBL needs to work out over the next six months, together with its early customers, is the shape of the business model.
What is the value and how much to charge.
Control Bionics has the tech.
It now has customers using it, AND recommending it to other peers.
… it now needs to work out a “grand slam offer” to sell as many NeuoStrips as possible.
There is a really good podcast by the VALD CEO about their journey selling to professional sports clubs.
(Worth a listen to get an idea of the journey ahead for CBL)
Control Bionics is essentially at the start of this journey…
But with technology validated and developed over the past 20 years.
Remember, it was built to capture signals from the most disabled and paralysed person.
So it is by far the best surface EMG product on the market.
Let’s talk rehab for a second and why I’m bullish
Sports teams have the money, but rehab facilities are using this product all the time.
Every day, their job is to help people recover.
From injuries, from strokes, car accidents…
Control Bionics already has its tech in the hands of Mountain Land Physical Therapy, the Mayo Clinic, and the Barrow Neurological Institute.
Mountain Land is a primary care physical therapy provider in the US, with 70 sports-performance and rehabilitation centres across the country.
It has launched the first program using the Control Bionics device.
Dubbed “Super Bridge,” the 12-week initiative by Control Bionics and Mountain Land targets athletes across all sports to improve performance and reduce the risk of injury.
It is reimbursed at US$1,300.
(Not to Control Bionics but to Mountain Land)
What this does is validate the use of Surface EMG in injury risk prevention programs and provide a playbook for CBL to sell its NeuroStrip to many clinics across the US.
That CAN access reimbursement.
The Armchair Take
Control Bionics has a 20-year-old tech at the start of its commercialisation journey.
A medical device for consumer applications.
It is clear that the tech is world-class and much needed in the industry.
Now it will be all about positioning the offer to get this product into as many customers' hands as possible.
(and some grit and determination from the executive and sales team)
I can see the pathway…
And Control Bionics is very much heading in the right direction.
See you all tomorrow,
The Armchair Analyst
