Not Your Typical Biotech Shed

Welcome to today's edition of The Armchair Analyst, a 5-minute daily update on the ASX life-sciences sector.

I was in Sydney last week, meeting with ASX-listed healthcare companies and speaking with brokers involved in the sector.

On Friday, I had lunch with Will Knox, the CEO of Tetratherix (ASX: TTX).

My first-ever Armchair Stock Pick.

Disclosure: I own 16,250 escrowed TTX shares.

My goal was to get the full TTX update, and honestly, I left Sydney feeling more bullish than ever.

Quick reminder about TTX…

TTX is a medical device platform company with a technology that is liquid at room temperature but hardens once it enters the body.

There are currently several different applications for this technology, including: 

But the last application was the one that got me most interested in the company… 

A nasal spray delivery for peptides, GLP-1s (like Ozempic and Wegovy) and hormones.

TTX is on the cusp of transitioning from the R&D Phase to the commercial phase.

I visited the giant new manufacturing facility at an industrial park about 10 minutes from Sydney Airport. 

When I say giant, it’s roughly the size of an airline hangar.

Oh, and its neighbours?

Tesla, Lime Bike and Drone Shield.

Will explained to me that this facility is expected to be “certified and operational” this year, with TTX on track to sell products into the dental and orthopedic markets.

For dental products, TTX has already signed an exclusive, long-term supply and distribution agreement with Henry Schein.

For orthopedics, TTX is finalising partnerships and remains on track for a commercial launch this year.

510(k) approvals for both products are on track for mid-year this year.

Importantly, changes to the Medical Device Single Audit Program mean that once FDA approvals are granted, there is a much more streamlined process to getting approvals in other markets (Australia, Canada, UK):

These changes were only floated in December last year, and materially accelerate the commercial launch timelines in markets beyond the US.

On the peptides front…

In March, TTX signed an exclusive R&D agreement with Superpower Health for US$3M per year for 10 years.

(A precision medicine and compounding pharmacy startup based in the US)

TTX has now started producing the Tetramatrix polymer platform for Superpower Health, with the goal of launching commercially very soon.

Three weeks ago, Superpower “launched” its peptide platform, with TTX’s nasal spray a cornerstone of this business.

Here is the LinkedIn post from Superpower’s founder Max Marchione:

TTX will make money by selling ingredients to Superpower Health and by receiving a US$3M exclusivity retainer for R&D services to develop new nasal-spray delivery products.

And the anticipated marketing budget that Superpower has set aside for its peptide division is eye-watering.

I like this deal because it enables two things:

FIRST, TTX can get its product into customers' hands right away. 

SECOND, TTX can collect real-world evidence of its nasal spray delivery product for an FDA approval much later down the track.

GLP-1s and peptides are the fastest-growing sector of the healthcare market right now.

Last week, Novo Nordisk (which sells GLP-1s) upgraded its guidance to the market on the back of strong operating profits from its Wegovy weight loss pill.

Reaching 2 million prescriptions since launching in January (the strongest GLP-1 volume launch in the US)

These sales were driven by changes in the underlying delivery mechanism, NOT the product itself.

Most peptides (GLP-1s included) are administered via injection, and some are taken orally (though that doesn’t always work).

A nasal spray alternative is a big differentiator.

(And TTX can immediately sell it through Superpower Health as a compounding pharmacy)

Right now, Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk are battling over whose pill sells best.

While TTX is already ahead of the game with a nasal-spray alternative that alleviates many of the challenges of delivering peptides through the gut.

A big year ahead.

Let’s dive in…

CSL (ASX: CSL) revises FY26 revenue guidance down to US$15.2B (was $15.8B) and NPATA to $3.1B (was $3.35B) and will write off around $7B in assets. (CSL, AFR)

🪑 Hurts, but could see this coming. Key quote from the CEO is “Our growth initiatives are working, but the financial benefits will take longer than previously anticipated to materialise”.

… let’s not hope too long.

BCAL Diagnostics (ASX: BDX) appoints Anne-Louise Arnett as CEO, and its current CEO, Shane Ryan, moves to Director of Clinical Affairs. (BDX)

🪑 BCAL is now firmly in the “commercial scale-up” phase. Getting the right person for this job is very important. 

Good luck Annie!

Bioxyne (ASX: BXN) cannabis house brand Dr Watson expands into Latin America with a larger A$500,000 deal with Remidose secured. (BXN)

🪑 Very, very early revenues from this market - but could be an interesting growth opportunity for BXN.

EMVision Medical Devices (ASX: EMV) expands its emu™ Pivotal Trial to include the detection of acute ischaemia (stroke). More than 125 patients enrolled, full enrollment scheduled for early 2027. (EMV)

🪑 EMVision is a portable stroke-detection kit designed to improve diagnosis. The trial is scheduled for 300 patients, so it's nearly halfway through recruitment.

Doctor Care Anywhere (ASX: DOC) acquires Outcome Diagnostics and MedicSpot, a direct-to-consumer platform in the UK that sells GLP-1s and various other weight-loss products. $11M in revenue last year. Purchase price $1.7M.

🪑 I really like this acquisition.

Cheap ($1.7M) and provides immediate leverage to the GLP-1 and weight loss healthcare trend. 

… not sure why this one wasn’t marked as price sensitive?

Little Green Pharma (ASX: LGP) acquisition target Cannatrek has agreed to a financial settlement with the TGA regarding past alleged contravention of the Therapeutic Goods Act. (LGP)

🪑 Here is the key quote: “Cannatrek anticipates contributing an additional estimated capital amount of $6.5 million at completion, over what was agreed”.

So either the settlement was less than anticipated, or Cannatrek performed better in the last few months than anticipated. 

Either way, the clarity is good for LGP shareholders.

Pacific Edge (ASX: PEB) enters a trading halt to launch a NZ$24M capital raise to support efforts to regain Medicare coverage and achieve reimbursement for its diagnostics product. (PEB)

Ancient Egyptians invented the first-ever pregnancy test over 2,000 years ago…

… And it was surprisingly accurate.

Pee on a handful of seeds, and if the barley grew, then the child was a boy; if the wheat grew, the child was a girl.

No growth = no baby.

Testing this theory in 1963 found that 70 per cent of the time, the urine of pregnant women did promote growth, while the urine of non-pregnant women and men did not.

So the test was actually remarkably accurate.

(Not sure about the gender reveal part, though)

Full Report: Thin Blue Line: A History of the Pregnancy Test (National Institute of Health)

See you all tomorrow,

The Armchair Analyst.