Good morning Armchair Army,
Welcome to today's edition of The Armchair Analyst, a 5-minute daily update on the ASX life-sciences sector.
After over 12-months in suspension, Opthea (ASX: OPT) will hit the boards again today…
And it’s going to be ugly.
I expect heavy selling given how close it is to the end of the financial year (tax-loss sellers).
However, just like with Immutep (ASX: IMM), a trade could emerge.
I’ve worked out that with 1.37 billion shares on issue and $31 million in cash in the bank, the true cash backing is at 2.3 cents.
Now, this trade may be a bit different to Immutep.
Immutep came ‘out of the blue’...
An unexpected negative result triggered massive selling (particularly from long funds that may have been margin called on the stock).
A race to the exit.
Since Opthea has been suspended for over 12 months, there has been time to unwind these complex financial instruments and plan for today.
But, given the timing - deep into tax loss selling season - I can see this trading under cash backing.
Here is how Immutep traded on the day it fell over 95%.
It opened at 3 cents on huge volumes and slowly, over the course of the day, made its way back to cash backing:
As I press send on this, Opthea is trading at ~2 cents, still under cash backing.
Will it return to cash just like Immutep? Only time will tell.
There are a LOT of people who have their fingers on the sell button.
But also quite a few traders are ready to mop up anything that’s valuable.
Let’s see how this one plays out…
The Pulse Check
Opthea (ASX: OPT) just hit the trading boards after being suspended for 12-months. (OPT)
🪑 Good luck, anyone trading the stock today!
Tetratherix (ASX: TTX) CEO Will Knox published a post on Medium explaining the company’s thinking behind the recent $15 million capital raise. (TTX)
🪑 One of my favourite things about TTX is the quality and quantity of communication to its shareholders.
A great read for anyone who holds TTX shares or just participated in the placement.
Firebrick Pharma (ASX: FRE) announces the grant of a Nasodine pharmaceutical composition patent in New Zealand. (FRE)
Vitura Health (ASX: VIT) announces the resignation of CFO Andrew Cook during his probationary period. (VIT)
🪑 Mess gets a bit messier 🍿
REPORT: All of the key movements from ASCO 2026: RAS data gets a standing ovation and Biospecifics vs ADCs. (Biopharma Dive)
REPORT: A sense check on the US psychiatry community’s growing affinity for psychedelic medicines. (Psychedelic Alpha)
Cash Injection
Pacific Edge (ASX: PEB) completes a NZ$36.1M capital raise, including a significant oversubscribed NZ$10.7M retail offer. (PEB)
🪑 Well oversubscribed.
Microba Life Sciences (ASX: MAP) is in a trading halt for a capital raise. (MAP)
Superannuation fund HESTA has backed a new $70M venture fund, Synthesis Capital, to invest in Australian medical tech companies. (AFR)
M&A, Big Pharma Wants a Wife
AstraZeneca, Pfizer and Bristol Myers Squibb have each allocated more than US$16 billion to collaborations with Chinese drugmakers since the start of 2025. (Biopharma Dive)
Big Pharma deals with Chinese Companies since 2005:
🪑 There is probably a broader article to be written on this…
But I’d love to dive deeper into how Big Pharma's newfound affinity for Chinese companies has materially affected Australian biotech’s ability to secure licensing deals.
Servier buys Edgewise’s muscular dystrophy business for up to US$2.65B. (European Biotechnology)
Eli Lilly pens US$1.2B deal for Hanmi’s GLP-2 drug aimed at short bowel syndrome. (Fierce Biotech)
Travere Therapeutics and Everest Medicines partner on BTK inhibitor for rare kidney diseases, US$112.5M upfront and US$1.1B in milestones. (Fierce Biotech)
🪑 This is an oral therapy for a range of kidney diseases from China, in Phase 1/2.
Just goes to show the discrepancy in value between the US and Australia, with Dimerix (phase 3) capped at ~$100M.
See you all tomorrow
The Armchair Analyst
