Good morning, Armchair Army,
Welcome to today's edition of The Armchair Analyst, a 5-minute daily update on the ASX life-sciences sector.
So the Democrats swept the US midterm election.
… and then something glorious happened.
Blue turned into green.
Big moves from oversold stocks like Clarity (CU6: ▲16%)...
While sector champions like Neuren (NEU: ▲17.5%) flexed an earnings upgrade on the biggest green day in MONTHS.
Then I woke up this morning…
Coffee in hand.
Smile on my face.
Ready to write the most bullish article in weeks…
Bam! NASDAQ down 5%.
Spits out coffee.
Grimace emerges.
Article deleted… and I’m there staring at a blank page again.
Sigh.
This game is never easy.
So how will the Australian markets react?
It depends.
True Rebound OR a “Dead Cat Bounce”?
(If the first moments of the market open are an indication… it looks like it might be the latter).
Here's how I think about it.
Anything on the “Trump Agenda” will get smoked.
Critical minerals, nationalisation, AI, big tech, bitcoin.
Anything that is NOT on the Trump agenda will thrive.
Remember 18 months ago when all of the Big Pharma were in this massive bear market because of tariffs and most-favoured-nation pricing.
… well, tariffs will be the first thing to go.
Still, the healthcare industry in the US managed to have a massive bull run DESPITE these geopolitical headwinds.
In my opinion, this means US pharmaceutical companies will come out even stronger.
Looking closer to home, I think about who was affected most by tariffs.
Companies like CSL… and on the smaller end, Trajan.
They both stand to benefit from any move back to globalisation and any tariff relief.
Domestically, we still have structural issues that drive our small-cap market.
CGT changes, rising interest rates, R&D changes, etc… etc…
This doesn’t change in a post-Trump world.
Still…
The market relief was nice yesterday. Let’s hope it lasts.
Alright, got to go…
Diving into the CLINUVEL (ASX: CUV) AGM with my popcorn ready.
Been waiting for this one for weeeeeeeks.
Rem report just got voted down again for a FOURTH time in four years. Let’s see if the spill resolution gets up.
It’s getting juicy.
Let’s dive in…
The Pulse Check
Mayne Pharma (ASX: MYX) has agreed to sell its international segment to Evaris Pharma for A$55.5M, including the CDMO business in Salisbury, South Australia. (MYX)
🪑 Importantly, Evaris Pharma is an Australian company, which means that it’s subject to the Foreign Investment Review Board (which tripped up the deal last time).
It’s a far cry from the $670 million deal with Cosette in February last year… but that was for the WHOLE Mayne business.
… this is just for one part.
This turns Mayne Pharma into exclusively a Women’s Health & Dermatology business in the US, with a key focus on its DistributeRx platform.
Good strategic deal for the company; that facility was always a drag on earnings.
Pacific Edge (ASX: PEB) confirms Medicare coverage for Cxbladder Triage and Triage Plus. (PEB)
🪑 It was a long time coming… but anyone who listened to the hearing between the CMS and the urologists who used to use Cxbladder (before the coverage was pulled) knew this decision was inevitable.
The LCD schedule becomes effective December 20th, so it will be interesting to see how quickly Pacific Edge can ramp up sales.
Nexsen Limited (ASX: NXN) launched its RenalSure® kidney diagnostic development program, aiming for an FDA submission by mid-2027. (NXN)
🪑 Big market opportunity. I like this… but FDA submission by mid-2027 seems like a stretch.
Epiminder (ASX: EPI) secures a 13% increase in Medicare payment to US$31,265 for its Minder System implant procedure for CY2027, boosting its US commercial launch plans. (EPI)
AVITA Medical (ASX: AVH) announces CMS's national Medicare payment framework and simplified billing codes for RECELL procedures, effective January 1, 2027. (AVH)
AVITA Medical (ASX: AVH) reports a 53% YoY revenue increase to $26.1M in Q3 2026, raising full-year revenue guidance to $92-$94 million. (AVH)
🪑 Another very good quarter from AVITA Medical, whose performance this year… we’ll really since August… has been stellar.
Frontrunner for Healthcare Stock of the Year.
See you all next week,
The Armchair Analyst.
What is an armchair pick?
An Armchair Pick is an invite-only spot I reserve for my highest-conviction investment ideas.
It's a paid arrangement, but to align myself, I only take my fee in shares - half escrowed for 6 months, half for 12.
It is general commentary only, not personal financial advice or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold. Always see the disclosure at the top of the article and do your own research.
