Good morning, Armchair Army,
Welcome to today's edition of The Armchair Analyst, a 5-minute daily update on the ASX life-sciences sector.
How does a US$25 billion company nearly triple in one day?
You take one step closer towards the holy grail.
That’s what happened last night when big pharma Moderna published late-stage results from their cancer vaccine.
(Source CNBC)
Moderna’s stock was up 176%... in one day:
It takes a lot to move a $25 billion company.
But a step towards a cancer vaccine? The holy grail?
… well, it got investors’ attention.
The 1,137-patient study used a combination therapy with an experimental mRNA-based vaccine and Merck’s Keytruda.
(Even Merck was up 12% on the news too…)
Top-line results showed that the combination therapy succeeded in preventing cancer from coming back or spreading in melanoma patients.
So why does this matter for our small biotech end of the market in Australia?
Winners create Winners.
… and the more that people can make money from biotech companies, the more capital they have to invest in earlier and earlier bets.
I’ve shown this waterfall before, but in Australia we are still very much at the top:
In the US, they are very much at the “Speculators Bet Earlier” stage.
As the bottom of the US waterfall fills, US investors will look overseas for other opportunities where the market has mispriced assets.
I spoke with a US-based venture capital investor about this exact topic.
He said, “AA, I’m looking for opportunities for mispriced assets. Australia looks the goods.”
(I’m not kidding… I had this conversation literally this morning)
US investors don’t quite understand the Australian markets.
Cowboys, we have been fondly referred to.
But they understand biotechs.
That is their edge.
… and they understand value.
There’s not much value left in the US markets; the good assets have been picked over, and it’s more about whether you can get access to the IPO (because it is all going up).
Bull market behaviour.
But in Australia, the value is still there.
Just as a US consortium of institutional biotech investors participated in the $600M investment in PYC Therapeutics earlier this year…
I can see US funds (that have made a lot of money in the US biotech sector) looking abroad for opportunities.
It usually takes about 12 months for the winners of a US-based biotech bull market to cycle into Australia.
… and I think it might just be starting now.
Let’s dive in…
The Pulse Check
Emyria (ASX: EMD) trains 15 new therapists (13 of those “lead therapists”) to continue to scale up the delivery of its psychedelic clinics in Australia. (EMD, held, Armchair Pick)
🪑 Another good update from EMD.
The key line for me was that “Additional Perth Dosing Availability is targeted for Q4”.
The Perth Clinic is already profitable for EMD, but only running at 35-40% capacity.
More staff and more authorised prescribers will drive capacity utilisation to 75-80%.
EMD charges $10,000 per patient per day. At full capacity at the Perth clinic, it has ~80 dosing days per month available.
… that’s just from one clinic.
Queensland’s the next most advanced, with Victoria launching last week.
NSW to open soon.
Little Green Pharma (ASX: LGP) appoints Jennifer Pilcher as CFO. (LGP)
🪑 I met Jenny at Bioshares two weeks ago, and she is lovely (also the wife of Jon Pilcher, the CEO of Neuren).
Very experienced CFO, particularly in the Cannabis space - helped Can Group get out of a pickle.
Rhythm Biosciences (ASX: RHY) announces the TGA in-house IVD notification acceptance and launch of ordering integration with MedicalDirector for its colorectal cancer blood test. (RHY)
Memphasys (ASX: MEM) secures Vietnamese registration for its Felix™ system, triggering a 600-cartridge order under an A$530,000 agreement with TMSC Vietnam. (MEM)
🪑 Some more good momentum from MEM.
Radiopharm Theranostics (ASX: RAD) announces a DSMC recommendation to advance the Phase 1 trial to a higher dose level for HER2+ tumours. (RAD)
HITIQ (ASX: HIQ) signs a Letter of Intent with USM STAR and UM NCTR for collaboration on military training technologies and appoints Aaron Bell as Strategic Military Advisor. (HIQ)
🪑 I like this update.
The Report Card
Tetratherix Limited (ASX: TTX) released its annual report with a comprehensive update on each platform technology. (TTX, held, Armchair Pick)
🪑 If you want a comprehensive overview of TTX, the annual report outlines each platform in great detail.
A lot is happening behind the scenes, particularly the clinical and regulatory work to get the company ready for commercial launch.
My favourite image on page 9 shows that TTX is on the cusp of a commercial launch.
Also, if you get a chance this morning, I would recommend reading the CEO FY26 letter on page 21 - a great overview of the year AND where the company is heading.
IDT Australia (ASX: IDT) reports FY26 EBITDA of $0.9M, with revenue increasing 16.5% to $16.8M. (IDT)
Sonic Healthcare (ASX: SHL) reports a 12.7% increase in revenue to $10.87 billion and an 18.4% rise in NPAT to $608.3 million. (SHL)
Medical Developments International (ASX: MVP) reports a Net Profit of $0.6M for FY2026, with a 9% revenue growth to ~$43M. (MVP)
🪑 Back in black 🎸
Nice work MVP team.
Telix Pharmaceuticals (ASX: TLX) reports H1 2026 revenue of US$477.35M, up 22%, and a net profit of US$38.33M. (TLX)
🪑 On track for A$1B in sales this CY. Full-year guidance remains set at US$950M - 970M.
The Report Card
Dimerix (ASX: DXB) receives a US$10M (A$14.1M) upfront payment from Everest Medicines under a licensing agreement. (DXB)
Tali Digital Limited (ASX: TD1) requests a trading halt pending a potential acquisition and equity raising. (TD1)
🪑 “Potential acquisition”... interesting.
See you all tomorrow,
The Armchair Analyst.
