Good morning,
Welcome to today's edition of The Armchair Analyst, a 5-minute daily update on the ASX life-sciences sector.
Yesterday, Eli Lilly announced another big M&A transaction…
This time in the CAR-T, cancer cell therapy space.
US$3.25 billion up-front and up to US$7B in milestones.
(pretty eye-watering numbers when you think about it, compared to the value of ASX-listed biotech companies)
(Source, CNBC)
This is the third major CAR-T deal this year, with other deals including:
Gilead → Arcellx: US$7.8B buyout in February for an anti-CD, a BCMA CAR-T in multiple myeloma.
Eli Lilly → Orna Therapeutics: up to US$2.4B in February for an in vivo CD19 CAR-T using circular RNA.
Eli Lilly → Kelonia Therapeutics: US$3.25B up-front, up to US$7B total for an in vivo BCMA CAR-T in myeloma.
CAR-T Cell therapy is a relatively new form of cancer treatment in which the patient's own cells are taken, modified, armed, and returned to the body to fight.
Early cancer cell therapies had extremely promising results.
But there is one looming disadvantage…
The cost.
A single CAR-T infusion can run between US$500,000 and US$1,000,000 per patient.
Last year, a number of companies discontinued their cell therapy programs: Takeda, Biogen and Novo Nordisk.
But it appears that 2026 has breathed new life into the sector, with several major deals.
Where is the space heading?
Either…
Really good results OR cost-effective process.
That leads us to the two in vivo acquisitions that Eli Lilly has made since the start of the year.
What’s in vivo?
In vivo is Latin for "within the living”...
But in this context, it means that the "cell modification" or "armouring up" is done inside the patient's own body.
It is more cost-effective than modifying cells outside the body, but it hasn’t shown the same level of efficacy… yet.
Big pharma is using its massive balance sheet to address the looming patent cliff, with north of US$200 billion in revenue set to lose patent exclusivity over the next five years.
But also, in the case of Eli Lilly, they are printing cash from the sales of its weight-loss GLP-1, and are using that capital to diversify the portfolio into other conditions.
There are a number of ASX-listed companies developing CAR-T cell therapies:
Chimeric (ASX: CHM): Fully funded to complete its Phase 1 clinical trial for colorectal cancer. Results for the first few patients at dose level 3 (the final dose level) should be published soon.
Arovella (ASX: ALA): Moving into a Phase 1 clinical trial very shortly for its off-the-shelf CAR-iNKT therapy after the FDA accepted its IND in January. $16M in the bank should be able to get some early data.
Imugene (ASX: IMU): its allogeneic off-the-shelf CD19 CAR-T, azer-cel, posted an 82% overall response rate so far in its Phase 1b. Just raised $20M to fund the next cohort.
AdAlta (ASX: 1AD): has licensed a CAR-T cell therapy from Shanghai Cell Therapy Group and recently signed a manufacturing agreement with Cell Therapies. The next stage is to secure funding for the Phase 1 trial.
Prescient Therapeutics (ASX: PTX): has a CAR-T platform with several preclinical programs, but is currently focused on its lead asset PTX-100.
So three of the five ASX-listed CAR-T players (CHM, ALA, IMU) have enough cash to bring us some interesting data.
This sets the stage for an acquisition by a larger player with the balance sheet to take on later-stage clinical trials.
BUT, it all comes down to two things.
The quality of the data AND whether the cell therapy type is a structural fit for the company.
Watch this space…
The Pulse Check
Noxopharm (ASX: NOX) reports preclinical data for SOF-SKN™ cream for autoimmune disease, lupus. The next stage before phase 2 is to secure a CRO. (NOX)
🪑 Milestone ticked. This is an important part of finding the ideal dosing regimen for the phase 2 study.
Singular Health (ASX: SHG) receives US$500,000 from its major partner Provider Network Solutions (PNS), completing the rollout of 500 additional 3DICOM MD® licenses. (SHG)
🪑 I had a chance to speak to the management of SHG as part of my Biotech 165 Challenge (full write-up pending). Right now, much of the company’s value hinges on its relationship with PNS.
If this is the trigger point for discussions about a deal renewal/expansion, it is really make-or-break for the company.
A deal expansion = very good, PNS has a much larger network of hospitals that it can take SHG’s technology to.
No deal renewal = disaster.
So there is a lot of ‘key customer’ risk that will come to pass (for better or worse) for SHG.
PolyNovo (ASX: PNV) appoints Dr Marthe D’Ombrain as Chief Scientific Officer, bringing 20+ years of biotech R&D leadership experience, including 12+ years in leadership positions at CSL. (PNV)
🪑 Nice get.
🪑 Alright, when your mum is sending you videos of ‘peptides’ being discussed on her favourite podcast (a Diary of a CEO), you know that the movement is starting to go mainstream. Thanks, mum. (YouTube)
The Report Card
BCAL Diagnostics (ASX: BDX) reports early revenue from the national rollout of its Pancreatic and Ovarian testing service, with 91 tests performed. (BDX)
🪑 Until there is a clear line of sight for the reimbursement pathway, BDX remains firmly in the “pre-revenue” stage of development.
91 tests within the first few months since launch is a good start - I would want to see this number continue to grow over this calendar year.
Also, a good update on BreastTest 2.0.
There were some logistical challenges with the first version of the test, which led to a slower-than-anticipated rollout. Hopefully, this second version will yield better results and better adoption.
Cochlear Limited (ASX: COH) revises FY26 net profit guidance to $290-330M from the lower end of a $435-460M guidance. (COH)
🪑 That’s a sizeable downgrade. Not sure how the Middle East conflict affects hearing implant sales though…
EBOS Group (ASX: EBO) revises FY26 EBITDA guidance to $610-$620M, down from $615-$635M, reflecting elevated fuel and consumable costs. (EBO)
🪑 Also blamed the Middle East conflict for the downward revision in guidance. However, this one makes a bit more sense. Higher fuel prices mean higher direct transport and logistics costs.
Supply/cost increase, rather than demand hindrance.
