Control Bionics and the Next Wearables Wave

Good morning, Armchair Army,

Welcome to today's edition of The Armchair Analyst, a 5-minute daily update on the ASX life-sciences sector.

Trivia Time.

What year was the first fitness tracking device created?

No cheating.

Okay… I’ll give you a clue.

Leonardo da Vinci first designed the step counter in the 1500s to track the distance a Roman soldier walked. 

But his design was never actually built.

It wasn't until the 1770s that mechanical pedometers (step counter) started appearing in Europe and gained widespread adoption.

Ding. Ding. Ding!

THEN, in 1965 Japan took the humble step counter mainstream with the Manpo-kei, literally, the “10,000-step meter.”

Today, health tracking devices look a little different.

Watches tracking heart rate.

Rings tracking sleep.

Bands tracking recovery.

… and everything in between.

Last night was meant to be the grand finale for wearable tracking devices.

Oura's US$15 billion IPO.

But alas, it was delayed…

“Market uncertainty”.

(Even though the book was oversubscribed 4 times)

Even still…

Some “big bets” are being made right now on wearables, as consumer health tracking moves to this next stage of development.

… and it is all about collecting “first-party data”.

That is where I think that my Armchair Pick Control Bionics (ASX: CBL) fits in.

Over the past 20 years, CBL has developed a technology that reads electrical signals and lets people control devices with their minds.

Surface EMG.

The exact same technology that Meta paid US$1 billion for in 2019… and is rolling out globally this week:

My bet?

IF Meta can take surface EMG mainstream as a key part of its “wearable” infrastructure.

THEN, it’s blue-sky for CBL.

But first…

Syntara (ASX: SNT) expands its Phase 1b trial for hypertrophic scars to 30 participants (up from 20). Results expected in Q1 2027. (SNT)

🪑 More data is always good.

NeuroScientific Biopharmaceuticals (ASX: NSB) appoints Southern Star Research as its CRO for a planned Phase 2 clinical trial of its stem cell product on Crohn’s disease. (NSB)

🪑 Milestone ticked.

Chimeric Therapeutics (ASX: CHM) securities are suspended after failing to lodge its annual report. (CHM)

🪑 Oh uh… once you suspend, you might not come out.

Talius (ASX: TAL) announces a commercial partnership with Health Generation to market CareGen Intelligence in the Australian aged care sector. (TAL)

🪑 I don’t mind these distribution deals… as long as the synergies work.

Three new customers planned in the first 12 months.

Nexsen Limited (ASX: NXN) appoints Professor Shekhar Kumta as Executive Director. (NXN)

🪑 Big Asia focus for Nexsen now.

LTR Pharma (ASX: LTP) announces the final results from its Phase II study, confirming SPONTAN's 6x faster absorption than oral viagra tablets. (LTP)

🪑 Largely known results but still impressive.

This now supports a planned 505(b)(2) submission to get this product to market.

AdAlta Limited (ASX:1AD) receives approval to open a representative office in Shanghai. (1AD)

🪑 I liked this announcement; 1AD will have “boots on the ground” to find promising assets in China.

As they say… “You got to be in it to win it”

Last week was Meta Connect.

Hundreds of thousands of people tuned in to watch Zuck present Meta's latest innovations.

Muse, a personal AI agent.

Meta Virtual Reality Glasses.

AND… A huge expansion of AI glasses.

On the AI glasses…

In 2019, Meta bought a surface EMG technology for up to US$1 billion.

That has now become the NeuralBand, a support function for the glasses.

Last year it was only sold in America, and it has been…

(and I quote directly from Zuck himself) 

“In extremely short supply”.

BUT now it will be for sale online AND internationally.

This will be the first time a surface EMG product has been rolled out at this scale as a consumer product.

Control Bionics (ASX: CBL) has its own surface EMG product.

Surface EMG is a device that is placed on the skin and reads signals from the brain to the muscles:

Perfect for reading micro-movements and being able to control the Meta glasses interface:

Here’s my bet for Control Bionics on the wearables front…

IF Meta can prove that this technology resonates as a consumer wearables product.

AND creates the next paradigm of wearables technology with the NeuralBand.

THEN Control Bionics is well positioned as the best-in-class surface EMG technology for anyone else who wants to compete in the space.

PLUS Control Bionics has a relationship with Apple, which has permitted CBL to integrate into its “Brain Computer Interface” protocol.

SO there is a ready-made partner for Control Bionics’ surface EMG technology.

There are a lot of “ifs, buts, and predictions” in that bet.

But it’s called a “blue sky” for a reason.

It might sound a bit crazy, but the next frontier of wearable technology could be Brain-Computer Interfaces.

(Like the tech that CBL has)

Last week, a brain-computer interface company, Precision Neuroscience, raised US$250 million:

Elon Musk is well advanced with Neuralink.

(Check out this great video of someone making art with an implant… it’s honesty like magic)

AND, China is moving towards setting BCI standards and investing in more neurotech companies:

There is a LOT of investment happening in the space.

BUT, Control Bionics is one of the few “BCI Companies” that have actually been able to get a product approved and to market.

This is because CBL’s product is different.

MOST BCI tech requires brain surgery and reads signals directly from the brain.

WHEREAS CBL’s tech is surface EMG and doesn’t require surgery at all.

Both technologies read the body's electrical signals; both are solving the same problem (brain-to-computer action), but they sit on very different ends of the spectrum:

The tradeoff between Neuralink and CBL is signal strength for safety, flexibility, and practicality.

That is the path that Meta went with the NeuralBand…

And it could be the next frontier of wearables tech.

Right now, CBL’s focus sits across two key markets.

Sports Performance & Rehabilitation.

Right now, over 50 customers are using the product in the “pilot” stage.

Including professional sports teams trialling the tech, such as GWS, Hawthorn, the British Olympic Team, and Paris Saint-Germain.

Oh..

And a NASCAR race team.

(which wrote a whole LinkedIn post on the product)

At my Armchair Analyst event earlier, CBL’s CEO Jeremy Steele recounted his sales pitch to the Port Adelaide Football Club earlier in the week.

The club doctor stopped them shortly after the intro and said…

“Just pause there… Conner, come and see this”

So he called in the club captain, Conner Rozee, who had been out with a hamstring injury for 8 weeks.

They put the device on Rozee’s hamstring, the software loaded (in about 45 seconds), and the Club Doctor could immediately read the muscle signal.

All up, it was a three-minute pitch before he said: 

“How can I get my hands on these?”

The company set a big target for itself for FY27 revenue.

50% expected revenue growth over last financial year:

50 organisations trialling your product is a great start.

… but I want to see them convert into paying customers.

Next milestones:

Control Bionics is in a very interesting position…

A technology right at the centre of the healthcare wearables market.

Meta is about to put surface EMG technology in front of millions of consumers.

… and if the NeuralBand works, it could validate an entirely new category of wearable technology around surface EMG.

While the Oura IPO was delayed, I don’t expect the industry to be slowing down.

If you’re interested in the topic, a friend of the newsletter, Emily Casy, had a great discussion on the wearables on her podcast this week:

The discussion centres around what it would take for tracking devices like Whoop and Oura to become full-fledged medical devices.

This appears to be the direction the industry is heading.

Control Bionics did it backwards.

START as a medical device.

THEN move into the wearables space.

(With FDA-cleared technology in the US and regulatory registration in Europe.)

THAT is why I think its surface EMG technology is so interesting.

It was designed to find a signal — any signal — from some of the most disabled and paralysed people in the world.

NOW, that same technology has shrunk to around the size of a paperclip, with 20 years of engineering behind it.

The main question for CBL now is whether it can create a business around this amazing tech.

… early signs are promising.

See you all tomorrow,

The Armchair Analyst.

What is an armchair pick?

An Armchair Pick is an invite-only spot I reserve for my highest-conviction investment ideas.

It's a paid arrangement, but to align myself, I only take my fee in shares - half escrowed for 6 months, half for 12.

It is general commentary only, not personal financial advice or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold. Always see the disclosure at the top of the article and do your own research.