Good morning,
Welcome to today’s edition of The Armchair Analyst, a 5-minute daily update on the ASX life-sciences sector.
It’s the half-year reporting day today…
Things to remember:
Results can’t be evaluated in a vacuum; they need to be measured against expectations
Expectations are generally easy to find, particularly if the company has provided guidance.
Management comments are very important to get a sense of the future outlook of the company (and that’s why we buy stocks, for the price in the future)
Anyone who publishes half-year reports after the market has generally tried to bury the results.
I’ve left some quick-fire comments on a number of reports published today.
Also, a big thank you to everyone who shared the newsletter this week. I managed to hit my goal of 1,000 subscribers yesterday!
You’re all legends.
I was in the CBD yesterday, frantically refreshing only for the final subscriber to come through… who was actually the person that I was meeting up with in 10 minutes' time!
So congratulations to Carlee.
As the prize for being the 1,000th subscriber, she chose one of her PA holdigns Syntara (ASX: SNT), for me to cover.
Keep an eye out for that one in the next week or so.
But first…
The Pulse Check
Neurizon Therapeutics (ASX: NUZ) has kicked off its Phase 2/3 US trial for ALS progression, with the first patient dosed. (NUZ)
🪑Clinical trials are the most exciting time for any ASX-listed company. This one will recruit 160 patients with a 36-week controlled period.
Some good details in the announcement about the endpoints and trial design. Good luck!
The NHS England has commenced an independent evaluation of Rhythm Biosciences’ (ASX: RHY) colorectal cancer blood test screening product. (RHY)
🪑Results from this trial will dictate whether Rythym can launch its products in the UK. It already has permission in Australia, but the UK opens up another huge market opportunity.
Control Bionics (ASX: CBL) enters a strategic joint venture with NextLevel Assistive Technology to manufacture and distribute iOS speech-generating devices for severely disabled people in the US. (CBL)
🪑This deal is CBL flexing its ability to plug into the Apple ecosystem, and follows on from deals announced with Tobii and PRC-Saltillo earlier this year.
It is clear that CBL is moving from a direct-to-consumer business model to a more B2B one, relying on distribution partners in a capital-light way.
Finding the right partners is critical with any distribution agreement. I’ll be listening in to the investor call today at 12:00 pm Melbourne time.
Cyclopharm’s (ASX: CYC) Chairman, David Heaney, has retired after 17 years at the company.
🪑17 years is gooood innings.
The Report Card
Immuron (ASX: IMC) reports H1 FY26 sales of $4.2M (up 5% YoY), US Sales up 17% YoY and cash reserves of $10M. (IMC)
🪑Capped at $10 million, Immuron is tracking at cash-backing, so I’ve been watching it closely.
It was sold off after its clinical trial failed to meet the primary endpoint, even though the new CEO has done well to build the sales into the business (I covered that result here)
Half-year results were announced at 3:49 pm, 10 minutes before close… so there was some buying, but not enough time for the market to digest them. Let’s see how it trades today.
Alcidion Group (ASX: ALC) reports H1 FY2025 revenue up 44% to $25.47M, transitioning to a $1.33M profit from a prior $889k loss, driven by new contracts and stable operating costs. (ALC)
🪑I’d expect the market to like these results today. The company is on track to beat full-year guidance.
Bioxyne (ASX: BXN) reports half-year revenue of $31.3M, up 149%, with net profit increasing 124% to $7.34M. FY26 adjusted EBITDA guidance upgraded to $16.5-$19M (previously $11.5-$13.5M) (BXN)
🪑Very strong half from BXN with an upgraded EBITDA guidance by like 40%. The market should like this.
Nova Eye Medical (ASX: EYE) reports H1 FY26 revenue up 31% to US$11M, with EBITDA improving by A$2M to a loss of A$2.2M. FY26 guidance is reaffirmed, targeting breakeven EBITDA in H2 FY26. (EYE)
🪑Results seem to be in line with expectations, the company has just $2.6 million in the bank, however…
Genetic Signatures (ASX: GSS) reports stable 1H FY26 revenue of $8.7M, and reduces net loss to $6.4M. $29.9M in strong cash reserves. (GSS)
🪑I actually picked some GSS earlier this week, knowing that the stock would have half-year results today.
At $0.12, the company’s market cap is $26 million (under the $30 million cash backing), so it was a bit of an asymmetric bet on how well the company presents today.
Not looking to hold the stock for long, just a trade.
Control Bionics (ASX: CBL) reports a 2.6% decline in revenue to $2.82M. (CBL)
🪑Dissapointing half year results. The company is still working out its market position and product-market fit.
Trajan Group Holdings (ASX: TRJ) reports $84.1M in revenue (up 3.8%) and a net loss of $449K (up 87.5%) for H1 FY25, with no dividend declared. (TRJ)
🪑Results should be priced in based on the company’s guidance earlier this month.
Vitura Health (ASX: VIT) reports H1 FY2026 revenue of $67.9M, (up 8.3% on pcp), despite a normalised NPAT loss of ~$1M due to pricing pressure on medicinal cannabis and higher operating costs. (VIT)
🪑Not great when “gross margin pressure from increased competition in the medical cannabis industry” is eating into company profits.
Seems like the company is racing to the bottom on price with discounts and rebates - this doesn’t bode well for a sustainable business model.
I wouldn’t be surprised if we see more consolidation in the industry, like the Little Green Pharma - Cannatrek merger earlier this year.
M&A, Big Pharma Wants a Wife
GSK is set to acquire Canada’s 35Pharma for US$950M in cash. (Reuters)
🪑 Another signal that strategics are willing to pay meaningful cash for earlier, science-led assets if the mechanism can support a multi-indication platform.
See you tomorrow,
The Armchair Analyst.
