Good morning, Armchair Army,
Welcome to today's edition of The Armchair Analyst, a 5-minute daily update on the ASX life-sciences sector.
So Firmus flopped…
The largest IPO since Telstra in 1997… that never was.
You’ve probably seen this meme floating around…
While Firmus was last week's story…
(I think the AFR ran 28 articles over two days… way to milk the story dry!)
Another ASX IPO may have got lost in the shuffle.
The SECOND healthcare IPO of 2026.
Identifai Genetics (ASX: ID1)...
A Tel Aviv University spin-out that has developed a non-invasive prenatal genetic screening test (NIPT).
It is raising $10 million at 20 cents and plans to list with a market cap of ~$38 million.
Trading starts tomorrow.
(Source: Prospectus)
What’s the product?
Windrose is a non-invasive prenatal genetic screening test that uses a blood draw and offers broader genetic screening than other products on the market for prospective parents.
Current NIPT tests only screen for a handful of genetic conditions.
Windrose screens for 280 different genes.
… without the invasive diagnostic to test the baby’s genes.
(Which carries a risk of miscarriage).
Now, the Identifai story resonated with me A LOT.
Why?
Because my wife is 36 weeks pregnant.
… and weeks before I heard the Identifai story at the TechKnow Conference in June, my wife and I were doing our own prenatal genetic screening.
So I understood the problem Identifai is trying to solve, the options available to prospective parents (and their limitations).
Good luck for listing day tomorrow!
Hopefully the bell rings loud.
The healthcare IPO market needs some winners.
A broader look at the ASX healthcare IPO market
In Australia, the healthcare IPO market has been barren.
For 5 years.
A big wave of IPOs hit the market in 2021…
(Remember COVID-19 time, biotechs were all flying!)
The majority of that 2021 crop are down over 50% (marked in red):
But over the last four years, some healthcare IPOs have been successful.
Ceretas (ASX: CTS |▲250%) this year …
Tetratherix (ASX: TTX |▲120%) last year…
Also Blink Labs (ASX: BB1 |▲220%) and Vitrafy (ASX: VFY |▲69%).
It's self-selecting.
Because it’s harder to IPO, the companies that make it are higher quality.
BUT…
The IPO has to be priced correctly so aftermarket investors can make money too.
This was the issue with Epiminder (ASX: EPI |▼80%) and Saluda (ASX: SLD ▼85%) last year.
… and a big reason why I think that the Firmus float didn’t get up.
The bankers priced it too high.
I ran a little experiment with ole’ mate ChatGPT.
If I put $100 into every healthcare IPO since 2020, what would our returns be?
I was surprised.
… down 15%.
(Thought it would be worse, to be honest)
Some big outsized winners have emerged from the IPO crop in the last six years, notably 4D Medical (ASX: 4DX | ▲455%).
In a high-risk, high-reward investing environment like small-cap stocks, you only need one big winner to offset the losers.
This year, we’ve seen only one IPO.
Ceretas (ASX: CTS | ▲250%)...
Compare that to the US biotech market, where 2026 has been a big year for IPOs (relatively speaking).
23 so far… compared to 6 last year.
The biggest year since 2021.
(and we still have a few months left in the year).
So… what do we need in Australia for our IPO market to return?
A few more winners.
Tomorrow, I’ll be announcing my first “watchlist” company.
… a stock looking to IPO before the end of the year.
My first “watchlist” company drops tomorrow
So… what exactly is a Watchlist Company?
Plenty of healthcare companies on the ASX have stories worth following.
The Armchair Watchlist is a new series where I'll take a closer look at companies that have caught my attention.
(And I may not have made an investment decision yet)
For clarity, here's how my three types of coverage work:
Armchair Picks - Invite-only spot reserved for my highest conviction investment ideas. (Sponsored content. Fees paid entirely in escrowed shares.)
Watchlist Companies - Commissioned commentary on companies that have caught my attention. (Sponsored content. Fee in cash)
Biotech 165 Challenge - My mission to write about every ASX-listed healthcare company, 75+ covered so far. (Fully independent. Not sponsored)
Sponsored coverage helps keep the newsletter free for subscribers.
(which it always will be!)
First on the Watchlist?
A company called Imunexus.
Currently unlisted, but targeting an IPO before year-end.
First Watchlist article drops tomorrow.
Let’s dive in…
The Pulse Check
Echo IQ (ASX: EIQ) requests supervisory review (appeal) of the FDA’s “Not Substantially Equivalent” determination for EchoSolv HF. (EIQ)
🪑 I’ve written before about the three paths EIQ could take to get EchoSolv HF approved.
It looks like the ‘resolve through diplomacy’ path has not borne fruit, and so it has moved to the more formal appeals process.
The next meeting with the FDA is in 30 days.
If the appeal fails, it may need another 510(k) approval or to pursue De Novo clearance.
Argent BioPharma (ASX: RGT) switches its strategic focus to immune modulation and longevity. (RGT)
🪑 No new asset… but it looks like they’ll use their existing portfolio to evaluate whether their products work in “chronic low-grade inflammation”.
One to watch.
Acrux Limited (ASX: ACR) has received FDA clarity on the approval pathway for registration of Female Testosterone MDTS. (ACR, held)
🪑 Very good update.
Clarity on the Phase 3 pathway, including 2x well-controlled Phase 3 trials. 24 weeks for efficacy and 52 weeks for safety.
Also, ACR confirmed 3-year exclusivity post-approval.
This is the type of update that a potential Phase 3 financing partner needs to see before pulling the trigger.
Next update = Trial design & CRO selection.
Racura Oncology (ASX: RAC) Phase 1 HARNESS-1 trial passes the Safety Review Committee for the first dose cohort. It now moves to 100 mg/m², with no dose-limiting toxicities. (RAC)
🪑 Safety milestone cleared.
CurveBeam AI Limited (ASX: CVB) requests a trading halt pending an announcement regarding regulatory approval for the HiRise TM device in China. (CVB)
🪑 👀
Firebrick Pharma (ASX: FRE) secures a $732K strategic investment from its Philippine licensing partner PN-NA. (FRE)
🪑 Always good when your partners are supportive investors.
Nicala Forrest (ex-wife of Andrew Forrest) has committed $20 million in Antler’s third Venture Capital fund (raising $70M) and committed another $10 million to support women founders. (Startup Daily)
🪑 I have a mate who works at Antler and asked for introductions to some of their healthcare investments.
Last week I spoke with one of them, Ash Ramachandran at Sapyen, an at-home male fertility testing product.
Very cool company, and starting to get some sales traction.
REPORT: Will the last executive out of the EBOS Group please turn off the lights? (The Australian)
🪑 Normally I wouldn’t highlight an article about corporate HR/executive disgruntlement…
But I reckon this is relevant for: Algorae Pharma (ASX: 1AI).
They've recruited several key senior people from EBOS over the last 18 months and are gearing up to play at the “generics business” in 2027.
If more EBOS staff are disgruntled, the company could be well positioned to strike and take market share.
REPORT: Heidi Health is set to strike a deal with the Victorian Government, exchanging “compute” for equity in the business. (The Capital Brief)
🪑 Creative… and honestly, a better investment than most Victorian government investments in the last five years.
REPORT: Pipeline Reality Check: China is getting drugs into humans faster than the US (Biotech Distilled)
🪑 While this is a US-centric article, it's still very relevant for Australia, which competes with China on CRO services.
Good read.
REPORT: The US National Institute of Health is going “all in” on Moderna’s cancer vaccine. (NYT)
🪑The goal is to “fast-track” these vaccines, similar to the push for the COVID-19 vaccine.
Report Card
EBR Systems (ASX: EBR) reports 40 WiSE implants in Q3 2026, down from 46 in Q2.
🪑 This WiSE rollout is well below the company’s previous forecast.
A bit of a disaster quarter for EBR; it's a line in the sand for them now, they need to rebound strongly from this.
Ryman Healthcare (ASX: RYM) reports strong sales in both retirement village living and aged care. Occupancy resales up 14% on pcp. (RYM)
🪑 The highlight number for me was that aged care occupancy is now up at 94%.
All of the big players are hitting close to 95% occupancy.
… something will have to give soon.
Summerset Group Holdings (ASX: SNZ) reports 415 occupation right sales in Q3 2026, up 10% year-to-date. (SNZ)
🪑 I had to look this one up. Occupation Right Agreement (or ORA) = a transaction in which a resident buys or sells the lifetime right to live in a retirement village unit.
See you all tomorrow,
The Armchair Analyst
