Good morning, Armchair Army,
Welcome to today's edition of The Armchair Analyst, a 5-minute daily update on the ASX life-sciences sector.
Biggggg week of conferences coming up.
The final scramble to get in front of investors before the market winds down after Melbourne Cup week.
(and I suspected a number of Capital raises to come too)
… it happens every year in October.
This week we had the Canaccord Drug & Device Conference in Noosa.
25 public companies presented.
EBR, NEU, ACW, ATH, ALC, ATX, ARX, AYA, AVE, AVH, CU6, CGS, DXB, IMM, IMR, MSB, NAN, OCC, PNV, PME, SHG, SOM, SPL, SNT and TLX.
Some strange stuff happened with Avecho (ASX: AVE).
The stock fell 17% on Tuesday… with no news.
I spoke to the CEO to find out what happened at the conference.
“No idea.
“Regular presentation… and largely good feedback.
Looks like only one shareholder needed to sell, and it spooked the market.
The stock recovered yesterday, but I think it shows where investor sentiment is for small-cap stocks.
We’re at the “jumping at shadows” stage.
Next week is also the Biggest Week in Biotech.
AusBio’s flagship event for the year.
Thousands of delegates, companies, investors, and industry stakeholders on the sunny Gold Coast.
I hear there is a big international delegation this year… and a LOT of effort has gone into the event.
Five ASX-listed companies presenting:
AVE, OIL, ATH, SPL and BB1.
A good mix of companies.
I’ll be dialling in to a panel hosted by IQVIA on Tuesday morning.
My topic?
How do ASX-listed healthcare companies compete for capital on a global stage?
Melbourne is showing up - LOTS happening next week too.
A healthcare lunch on Tuesday with PER, IVX, CC5 and an unlisted psychedelics company.
This is on the same day as the Microcaps Conference.
With EVE, NTI, ILA and PAB representing the healthcare space.
THEN, on Wednesday…
RNV, BDX and ENP.
ALSO on Wednesday is the TIP Conference.
Healthcare stocks presenting include ECS, ALC and CGS.
There is ONE OTHER conference happening right now.
The one I'm most jealous of.
The Horizons Psychedelics Conference in New York.
I’ve been getting live updates from the Emyria (ASX: EMD) team, who are there.
Direct quote from the COO:
“So many big players in the space kicking around here.”
Eli Lilly, Definium, AbbVie, Compass.
… as well as a bunch of investors and industry stakeholders.
Lots of talk about Spravato.
(That’s J&J’s nasal spray Ketamine product)
… and the Executive Order signed in April that changed everything for the psychedelics industry.
Excitement in the US is growing right now for psychedelics.
… and Emyria is putting itself in pole position as the only organisation to have successfully scaled up psychedelic clinical services.
So lots of activity in healthcare.
… and you never know.
One conference conversation might lead to your next big deal.
Let’s dive in…
The Pulse Check
Paradigm Biopharmaceuticals (ASX: PAR) has published unblinded results from its Phase 3 interim trial for osteoarthritis pain, showing a statistically significant pain reduction in “Rest of World” patients, while the big issues were localised to the US. (PAR)
🪑 This is really disappointing.
Not in the data, but in the potential loss from a botched CRO effort.
Looking at the “rest of world” data, the drug appeared to work, but in the US (where the data collection was incomplete) it threw off the whole trial.
I can’t see how they don’t need to go back to square one and run ANOTHER Phase 3 trial.
The question is… will the company be able to secure the equity needed to do that? OR will this just be an asset left on the shelf alongside the other “could have beens”.
Starpharma Holdings (ASX: SPL) requests a trading halt pending a strategic transaction. (SPL)
🪑 🍿
Austco Healthcare (ASX: AHC) to acquire RTM Solutions for up to $15M and CareTech Systems for $4M. (AHC, AHC)
🪑 Interesting acquisition. RTM, or Real Time Monitoring, is bespoke software that uses sensors to track residents in Aged Care.
When I flew to Queensland to meet Talius Group (ASX: TAL), one key differentiator was that they built their own RTM system internally.
It's interesting to see the value of JUST the software (with Talius trading at a $15M market cap).
This acquisition, along with the CareTech one, continues Austco’s vertical integration.
I don’t think this will be “revenue additive”... but it will strengthen the company's MOAT and streamline its cost centre.
BCAL Diagnostics (ASX: BDX) published a letter to Genetic Signatures (ASX: GSS) shareholders outlining its case for voting in favour of the 249Ds. (BDX)
🪑 This is a good read, and a strong case for the director replacements.
The challenge for Genetic Signatures (and Microba, for that matter) is that the alternative merger is still in the “proposed” stage.
The two parties will want to finalise that soon so shareholders have a bona fide alternative to vote on.
AROA Biosurgery (ASX: ARX) has entered into an exclusive agreement with Molnlycke to co-promote the Endoform wound care product in the US. (ARX)
🪑 Distribution agreement. Could be amazing, could lead to nothing…
Firebrick Pharma (ASX: FRE) Nasodine Nasal Spray has been approved by the PFDA for marketing in the Philippines. (FRE)
Nyrada Inc. (ASX: NYR) opens a fourth site for its PROTECT-MI Phase IIa clinical trial (eight by the end of November). It has recruited only three patients (out of 100 for the trial). (NYR)
🪑 The company still anticipates final patient dosing by mid-2027. But at the current recruitment pace, it would need serious hockey-stick-like growth to hit that target.
Algorae Pharmaceuticals (ASX: 1AI) partners with Peter MacCallum Cancer Centre to screen 40 drug combinations for synergies in a six-month program. (1AI)
Dimerix (ASX: DXB) reports that the first 100 patients have completed 2 years of DMX-200 treatment for FSGS, with 93% opting into an open-label extension study. (DXB)
🪑 Nice long-term safety data.
AstraZeneca strikes drug discovery deal with Insitro on MASH and cardiomyopathy assets. US$40M upfront, US$1.5B in milestones. (Reuters)
🪑 Big pharma companies are paying up for AI-developed pipeline assets.
If you’ve got a discovery “platform”. Big pharma is interested.
(Interesting benchmark for my first Watchlist Company, Imunexus).
Alentis Therapeutics have signed a co-development agreement with PinotBio to develop claudin-1 oncology drugs. (Pharmaceutical Technology)
🪑 Less than TWO WEEKS after signing a deal with CSL, Alentis has already moved to partner on its Claudin-1 oncology asset.
While CSL still has access to Alentis’ Claudin-1 asset for kidney and liver diseases, the deal didn’t include oncology.
I think this shows how rinsed CSL got with Alentis, already moving to partner off the asset (this time THEY are paying for the co-development agreement… using CSL’s money, no less).
OrbiMed raises US$3B across two funds, targeting global biotech and life sciences investments. (FierceBiotech)
🪑 Hello ☎️, OrbiMed, I’ve got some hungry ASX-listed biotech companies that could use that US$3 billion you just raised.
Iambic Therapeutics is raising a US$150M IPO for its AI-driven drug discovery platform. (FierceBiotech)
🪑 If you think your "Holly Grail" is too ambitious, have a look at the north star for this company: “Solve All Diseases”
REPORT: FDA launches Rare Disease Framework Initiative to standardise flexible drug development. (FDA)
🪑 Looks like the barrier to Rare Disease Drugs will become easier.
REPORT: The New York Stock Exchange is moving to 23-hour trading. The ASX risks ‘monstrous’ trading costs without faster settlement. (AFR)
🪑 100% agree. Faster settlement should be the benchmark.
See you all next week,
The Armchair Analyst
