Good morning,
Welcome to today's edition of The Armchair Analyst, a 5-minute daily update on the ASX life-sciences sector.
Alright, today is confession season.
ASX-listed companies are releasing their quarterly 4C reports.
There are two key things to look for as I scan through:
Cash balance. When will the next capital raise come?
Cash inflows from sales. Did you meet your sales targets?
I have a bit more time later today to read through management commentary and future outlook on some of the stocks I’m tracking more closely.
But confession season always throws up something interesting.
So far, FOUR capital raises have been announced today…
Cynata (ASX: CYP), AdAlta (ASX: 1AD), Imricor (ASX: IMR) and ImpediMed (ASX: IPD).
Get busy, brokers!
But also, I’ve done a morning scan, and this is what caught my eye:
Dimerix (ASX: DXB) - Cash balance of $26M. It’s clear now that the company doesn’t have enough capital to get through the trial. Will be interesting to see how they navigate this. (DXB)
Microba (ASX: MAP) - an interesting mention of a “Corporate Update” regarding a transaction that, if completed, would improve the company’s financial position. (MAP)
Translation = We’re burning cash but have a Hail Mary in our back pocket. HODL!
Adherium (ASX: ADR) is running at $1M per month and appears to be just shy of its sales targets set back in December.
Will be ‘come raise’ again this quarter unless sales ramp up significantly. The target is 6,000 patients activated for breakeven by June, sitting at 2,600. (ADR)
Mayne Pharma (ASX: MYX) has some solid numbers from the quarter, with all figures up, including gross margin and adjusted operating cash flow. (MYX)
Immutep (ASX: IMM) had $84M in the bank, will be interesting to see if the cash burn slows, but that is the new “cash backing” that everyone can do the maths on (5.7 cents). (IMM)
None of the AI medical imaging companies whose share prices have run over the last 12 months brought in a meaningful step change in revenues: 4DMedical (ASX: 4DX), Artraya (ASX: AYA), and EchoIQ (ASX: EIQ).
I expect their momentum to hold for a little while (particularly if 4DX stays up), but eventually the sales revenue will need to justify the company's valuation. (4DX, AYA, EIQ)
Control Bionics (ASX: CBL) has less than a quarter of its cash flow remaining. It will be interesting to see how they navigate this next raise - do they bring in new money, or do they go back to the major shareholders again? (CBL)
Osteopore (ASX: OSX) still has ~$15M of the convertible note to work through. (OSX)
Good capital discipline from Algorae Pharmaceuticals (ASX: 1AI), maintaining a low cash burn as it waits for the TGA to approve the sale of the various generic products in their portfolio. (1AI)
Botanix Pharmaceuticals (ASX: BOT) is still hemorrhaging cash. Operating cash outflows for the quarter of $23M.
They just did that big raise in February (huge discount with attractive options). Still in a bit of a rut, but BOT has some runway to dig itself out. (BOT)
Keep an eye on the after-market 4Cs.
Those are the ones that the company doesn’t want you to see.
(But they are always the ones that I read thoroughly!)
If there are any other 4C reports you want some commentary on, just reply to this email (I read every response).
Let’s dive in…
The Pulse Check
Arovella (ASX: ALA) has closed out the 249D saga by appointing four new directors. The three directors nominated by the Summit Biotech Fund: Dave Williams, Mark Diamond and Michael Thune, as well as a fourth, Dr Mike Perry. (ALA)
🪑 A lot of cooks in the kitchen now, but this feels like the best case scenario for both parties (the number 1 shareholder and the company incumbents).
AVITA Medical (ASX: AVH) RECELL GO for the preparation of its burn and trauma wounds product secures regulatory clearance in Australia and New Zealand. (AVH)
Orthocell (ASX: OCC) completes first commercial sales of Remplir™ nerve repair product in Canada. (OCC)
Paradigm Biopharmaceuticals (ASX: PAR) completes DSMB safety review for its Phase 3 pain trial. (PAR)
🪑 Milestone ticked.
Cash Injection
Syntara Limited (ASX: SNT) announces an A$8M institutional placement and A$2M share purchase plan to fund Phase 2b trials for its lead drug amsulostat in Myelofibrosis. (SNT)
AdAlta Limited (ASX: 1AD), Cynata Therapeutics (ASX: CYP), ImpediMed (ASX: IPD) and Imricor Medical Systems (ASX: IMR) are all in a trading halt for a capital raise. (1AD) (CYP) (IPD) (IMR)
Avecho Biotechnology (ASX: AVE) listed options expire on 10 May 2026 and are exercisable at $0.012. (AVE)
🪑AVE is currently trading between 0.011 and 0.012. Let’s see how this dance plays out
See you all tomorrow,
The Armchair Analyst.
