Good morning, Armchair Army,
Welcome to today's edition of The Armchair Analyst, a 5-minute daily update on the ASX life-sciences sector.
Quick update from me.
I’m in Sydney for the E&P Healthcare Day.
Thirteen stocks.
Biotech. Medtech. Healthcare.
Best part of the day?
Listening to the E&P Healthcare analyst David Nayagan and Will Knox, the CEO of Tetratherix (ASX: TTX).
In a past life, David was an ophthalmologist…
So the two spent half their time nerding out over TTX’s Optimatrix cataract surgery results from yesterday.
(brilliant stuff)
Importantly, Will provided an update on the two 510(k) approvals: “no news from the FDA so far”.
In this scenario, no news is good news, as the FDA haven’t gone back to TTX with any questions that would delay the approvals.
What else did I find interesting?
FIRST, on Neuren’s (ASX: NEU) dividend policy.
Gerry Zhao, Chief Business Officer, explained that the company’s cash balance is now sufficient to finance all upcoming work programs, and that it will maintain an ongoing dividend policy.
Essentially, a % of the cash flows from the DAYBUE royalty will be paid back as an ongoing dividend.
The Armchair Take… if you hold Neuren stock, you’re essentially getting paid while you wait for the future drug development catalyst.
(a nice change from most biotechs that cost investors money to sit in them)
NEXT, on Avecho’s (ASX: AVE) potential.
Of all the companies to present, Avecho surprised me the most.
(to the upside.)
I’ve heard the story multiple times before (my Dad is a big shareholder), but it was the first time I had heard CEO Paul Gavin speak since the positive interim results.
Paul’s generally a measured CEO.
But… I have never seen him more bullish than yesterday.
One slide stood out: a revenue forecast for the potential of its OTC insomnia product in Australia.
US$125 per annum.
(Of which AVE gets a royalty between 14 and 19%)
… and that’s just for the Australian market.
Paul suggested the company is in firm talks with other potential partners to licence the product for larger jurisdictions.
US, Europe… all on the table.
For the US market, the main question is whether the FDA will allow Avecho to carry over the results from this trial for registration.
If the answer is “YES”, that would be a major opportunity in addition to what they are doing in Australia.
Recruitment has started up again with 320 additional patients.
Quick Fire Round (just stuff I noticed)
Dimerix (ASX: DXB) - What stood out is the monumental number of inflection catalysts it has over the next 12-18 months. The new asset fills the news-flow vacuum incredibly well, with a funded Phase 2 trial and a major Phase 3 readout in mid-2028.
Amplia (ASX: ATX, held) - Always enjoy hearing Chris present. With the price set for Revolution Medicines’ RAS inhibitor for pancreatic cancer at US$40,000 per month, patient access is a big issue (particularly abroad), so chemotherapy will still have a place in these cancer treatments.
PYC Therapeutics (ASX: PYC) - CEO Rohan highlighted the importance of new US-based specialist life sciences investors. Not only for their capital but also for access and guidance to support ongoing clinical work.
Epiminder (ASX: EPI) - First time hearing the story. Sounds interesting; the company is almost at cash-back, so it's one to watch.
EBR Systems (ASX: EBR) - The safety issues identified have largely been addressed and have had no meaningful impact on clinician adoption in the US. That’s what I wanted to hear.
Thanks again to the E&P team, especially David Nayagan for hosting.
Let’s dive in…
The Pulse Check
Resonance Health (ASX: RHT) signs a Strategic Alliance and Master Services Agreement with Image Analysis Group to integrate its MRI analysis tools. (RHT)
🪑 Very nice update. RHT is flying under the radar, in my opinion.
Echo IQ (ASX: EIQ) provided an update on its FDA 510(k) clearance for EchoSolv HF, identifying possible appeal or resubmission paths. (EIQ)
🪑 No real new information in here except the line that the FDA had an issue with “statistical analysis supporting the clinical validation”.
Translation = a 99.50% sensitivity might have been “too good” a result for the FDA to believe. So show me more data on how you got to that number.
Patrys (ASX: PAB) establishes a Clinical Advisory Committee to aid the clinical development of RLS-2202, as its Phase 1 program. (PAB)
🪑 Milestone ticked.
Genetic Signatures (ASX: GSS) receives another section 249D notice from BCAL Diagnostics requesting the removal of director Jenny Harry. (GSS)
🪑 You get a 249D… You get a 249D… You get a 249D.
Epiminder (ASX: EPI) announces it has reached the 75th patient enrolment in its US DETECT study. (EPI)
🪑 On track for final patient H1 CY2027.
Nyrada Inc (ASX: NYR) announces a trading halt pending a material capital raise. (NYR)
🪑 It will be interesting to see how this one goes.
Johnson & Johnson will look to offload its orthopedics unit in a US$20B deal to Apollo. (Bloomberg)
🪑 Interesting news for my first Armchair Pick, Tetratherix (ASX: TTX), which is in the process of securing 510(k) approvals for its orthopedic bone-healing product.
TTX is searching for the right partner to take this product to market - this deal does shake up that market quite a bit.
GE HealthCare floats US$1B acquisition of imaging chemicals maker Sofie Biosciences. (Fierce Biotech)
🪑 After the Lantheus acquisition, we are seeing even more consolidation in the radiopharmaceutical industry.
Interesting for ASX-listed companies like Clarity and Telix, but importantly, Radiopharma.
REPORT: Psychedelics back on FDA’s doorstep. (Bio Space)
See you all tomorrow,
The Armchair Analyst.
What is an armchair pick?
An Armchair Pick is an invite-only spot I reserve for my highest-conviction investment ideas.
It's a paid arrangement, but to align myself, I only take my fee in shares - half escrowed for 6 months, half for 12.
It is general commentary only, not personal financial advice or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold. Always see the disclosure at the top of the article and do your own research.
