Good morning,
Welcome to today's edition of The Armchair Analyst, a 5-minute daily update on the ASX life-sciences sector.
This year, big pharma is on track for a record US$172 billion in licencing and M&A deals.
… but we haven’t seen any of that flow into Australian biotech stocks.
Yet.
This morning, as I was boarding a flight to Perth, I opened my Comsec app to the news that Telix Pharmaceuticals (ASX: TLX) and the US$80 billion-capped Regeneron (NASDAQ: REGN).
A partnership deal.
US$40M upfront with up to US$2.1B in milestone payments.
(Source, TLX)
This collaboration deal validates the entire radiotheranistocis field, as well as Telix’s position as a leader.
On Friday, I wrote that while the M&A/lisencing tap is flowing in US biotech, it has yet to reach Australia.
Read the full article: While everyone is selling. Big Pharma is buying
I also called out Telix by name as one of the companies that ‘fit the bill’ for an M&A or licencing transaction:
Using my waterfall analogy from last week, this deal is just the first, in what I hope is a string of M&A/licencing action for the Australian biotech sector in 2026.
If more deals come through, the top level of the waterfall will overflow, and investors will look at earlier opportunities.
Remember, this is already happening in the US.
We are 6-12 months behind.
I wouldn’t be surprised if we look back in years’ time and see this as the exact point that sentiment turned on ASX biotech stocks.
Still, a lot more needs to go right.
More deals…
More positive data...
More investor wins…
But the shoe is ready to drop.
Right now I’m building a portfolio of ASX-listed healthcare stocks to leverage the wave of capital that I’m expecting to flow.
My goal in 2026 is to find 5 high-potential ASX-listed healthcare stocks to invest in and back for the long run.
I’m picking my way through the sector as part of my Biotech 165 Challenge (to speak to management and write about every healthcare stock on the ASX).
From these companies, I will ‘pick’ my personal favourite stocks that I think will be most leveraged to success in the long term.
My goal is to find 5 for the year.
My first pick, Tetratherix (ASX: TTX) is up 25% from my initial investment.
My next pick will be coming in the next few weeks.
Finally, if you’re looking for some more content, I was invited to be a guest on the On-Ramp Podcast:
(Worth a watch, we cover everything that I’ve learned since starting the newsletter and highlight a few stocks with catalysts to watch out for at the end).
Let’s dive in…
The Pulse Check
Telix Pharmaceuticals (ASX: TLX) announces a partnership deal with the US$80 billion-capped Regeneron (NASDAQ: REGN). US$40M upfront with up to US$2.1B in milestone payments. (TLX)
🪑: 👏
Monash IVF (ASX: MVF) received an upsized non-binding takeover offer at $0.90 per share from Genesis Capital and WHSP Holdings. Up from the prior $0.80 offer. (MVF)
🪑 Last week, I spoke with the co-founder of Endpoints Capital about healthcare stocks.
We landed on Monash IVF, and he predicted that Genesis Capital would come in with another deal at a higher price - as is their playbook.
Well done. Called it to perfection.
Argent BioPharma (ASX: RGT) completes acquisition of CannPal animal epilepsy asset. (RGT)
Pro Medicus (ASX: PME) signs a 5-year, A$37M contract renewal with Northwestern Medicine. (PME)
Cannatrek shareholders overwhelmingly approved the merger with Little Green Pharma (ASX: LGP). (LGP)
Lumos Diagnostics (ASX: LDX) got a speeding ticket from the ASX over the capital raise on the back of the CLIA Waiver. (LDX)
🪑 Interesting speed ticket.
I think the ASX's concern was that the company failed to mention a “capital raise” as the reason for the trading halt.
This one was a bitter pill to swallow for retail investors: the catalyst event (CLIA waiver) was meant to be a rallying cry for the share price… but it was used as a capital-raising opportunity.
It’s the company’s call (and may be best in the long run), but it did throw a wet blanket on the momentum.
Arovella Therapeutics (ASX: ALA) was issued a 249D notice to add three new board members, including Dave Williams (ex-Polynovo, ex-MVP), Michael Thun (ex-NUZ) and Mark Diamond (Chairman of Dimerix).
🪑 I had a deep dive into my thoughts on this 249D this morning… but then Telix announced a major deal. I’ll have to save it for tomorrow.
Biotron Limited (ASX: BIT) announces the retirement of long-term Chairman Michael Hoy. (BIT)
Report: Biopunk & Community Labs: The Future For Biotech? (TLDR Biotech)
🪑 Great read.
One quote that stood out…
The FDA is going to shift into regulating for safety, not for efficacy. Right now, they regulate for both safety and efficacy, but instead, it'll be up to the companies and the public to determine a drug's efficacy.
The FDA is already moving this way for medical devices. It will be very interesting to see if this is how things move for drugs as well.
Watch: Fireside Chat: Unlocking Personal Health Superpowers in the Age of Intelligence
🪑 Great watch.
This is the CEO of Superpower Health talking about the future of precision medicine.
Superpower Health is the most recent joint venture partner of my first-ever Armchair Analyst Pick, Tetratherix (ASX: TTX).
Superpower licensed a technology designed by TTX to deliver precision medicines like peptides, hormones and GLP-1s through a nasal spray. US$3M per year for 10 years.
Report: Nearly 1m Australians on ADHD drugs as script explosion alarms doctors. (AFR)
🪑 The more I read about the cost of ADHD and Autism to the healthcare system the more I think just how important it is for a standardised screening tool for the broader population, like what BlinkLabs (ASX: BB1) is creating.
See you all tomorrow,
The Armchair Analyst
