The $12M Prize: How PER Survived Two Board Coups and Lived to Fight On

Good morning,

Welcome to today’s edition of The Armchair Analyst, a 5-minute daily update on the ASX life-sciences sector.

To all my Melbourne readers, well done for surviving the scorching heat yesterday.

Today, I have another scortcher to cover in the Biotech 165 Challenge - my year-long quest to cover all 165 ASX-listed healthcare stocks.

Over the last 14 months, this company has survived a failed clinical trial, defended two board spill challenges, and emerged with a new asset.

Cheap for a reason, or on the cusp of a turnaround?

Company #3 of 165 is Percheron (ASX: PER)

But first…

Alcidion (ASX: ALC | MC: 147M) has been selected as the preferred patient e-record supplier for University Hospitals Sussex. 7-year deal, expected total contract value of A$35 million. (ALC)

Ansell (ASX: ANN | MC: $5.2B) CEO Neil Salmon has retired after 13 years at the company. (ANN)

Syntara (ASX: SNT | MC: $55M) completes recruitment for its Phase 2 neuroinflammation drug in isolated REM sleep disorder (linked to Parkinson’s disease). Top-line results expected Q2 CY26. (SNT)

CLINUVEL (ASX: CUV | MC: $615M) presents data from four new patients with vitiligo undergoing repigmentation at the RDTC Conference. (CNV)

🪑 Photos presented are pretty compelling in this announcement.

Osteopore (ASX: OSX) signs 15-year exclusive license from Accelerate Technologies for a new bone and tissue regeneration product. (OSX)

🪑 I think this is the smallest healthcare stock by market cap on the ASX.

Data from LTR Pharma’s (ASX: LTP | MC: $114M) phase 1 nasal spray for erectile dysfunction will be presented at a global industry conference. (LTP)

OncoSil (ASX: OSL) secures $1.84 million R&D tax refund. (OSL) 

Blinklabs (ASX: BB1) secures $822K R&D tax refund. (BB1)

Eli Lilly and Nimbus Therapeutics partner on preclinical oral obesity drug, $55M upfront, $1.3B milestones. (Biospace)

Pfizer, Cartography Biosciences partner on tumour-selective antigen discovery, $65M upfront, $850M potential milestones. (FirstWorld Pharma)

U.K. biotech Ikarovec has partnered with VectorBuilder to develop an eye disease gene therapy. Deal worth up to $1B. (FierceBiotech)

AriBio, Fosun Pharma and Newcopharma partner for Alzheimer's treatment in US$435.5M deal. (Business Korea)

I get the same message every day from my stock trader friend…

“AA, what do you think of this biotech stock… Is it any good?”

You see, he has a screener that scans for unusual volumes. 

Every day, it tracks companies with trading volumes outside the norm…

This could be for many reasons: the company is on a roadshow to investors, a capital raise is coming, rumours of a new asset or new acquisition are leaking into the market…

Who knows.

Sometimes these trades work, sometimes they don’t.

Where there is an edge is when the unusual volume is MATCHED against an outcome expected by the market but has been somewhat forgotten or ignored.

But this is hard to identify unless you know the stock well.

Hence the daily messages (thanks bud…).

A few weeks ago, a stock started pinging on his radar: Percheron (ASX: PER).

I hadn’t heard of the company before, but when I read through the last 12 months of announcements, it was like reading a script for a spinoff of Game of Thrones “small cap edition”.

So, what happened?

FIRST, there was the capital raise: $13M raised in October of 2024, two months before top-line results were set to be announced for the company’s Phase IIb muscular dystrophy trial. (Announcement)

(For context, this drug had been in development for ~20ish years under the old company name of Antisense Therapeutics)

THEN, the topline results for the Phase IIb were published and “no statistical significance in efficacy” was found. (Announcement)

The stock price drops from $0.06 to $0.009 in one day.

… and then the sharks start to circle.

FIRST 249D, a board spill resolution from a number of existing shareholders. The asset had been in development for over 20 years, and they believed it may be worth salvaging, given the capital invested so far (The Antisense Faction). (Announcement)

A second faction (Power House Ventures) starts buying shares on the market and moves to become a substantial shareholder (>10%).

SECOND 249D, from Power House Ventures.

Fighting back, the company CEO buys $475,000 worth of shares on the market to shore up his position.

Now there are three factions fighting for control: the Antisense Faction, PER management and Powerhouse Ventures.

And there is ~$12 million on the line, an attractive prize for whoever could gain control.

By a slim margin, the PER management team win the first 249D battle against the Antisense Faction:

Then PER management won the second 249D battle against Powerhouse Ventures more convincingly.

Powerhouse sells half of its stake in the company… and the original PER team survives.

The dust finally settles, and the company’s fate is back in its own hands.

So what happens next?

With the cash, PER acquires a new asset: a checkpoint inhibitor cancer drug that has completed a Phase I trial under a US IND.

Given the corporate infighting, the company was effectively uninvestible for new shareholders for the first half of 2025.

However, now that the dust has settled, the company has a story to tell and a bit of cash runway to deliver.

Where it stands now is that PER is capped at $9.20 million with roughly $5.70 million in the bank, giving it an enterprise value of $3.5 million.

The plan is to launch its phase 2 clinical trial in 2026.

Small Enterprise Value bets like this are interesting. It doesn’t take much to move the share price, BUT the company does come with a lot of baggage. 

It’s a fine line between cheap for a reason and an undervalued opportunity.

The bet now is that with the new asset in hand, and the wolves at bay, the company has some clear air to tell its story.

There is an uphill battle with every turnaround story however… and it all comes down to how well management can sell new and existing shareholders on the dreams of tomorrow.

A big thank you to the CEO James for taking the time to share the PER story with me this week.

See you all tomorrow.

The Armchair Analyst