Good morning, Armchair Army,
Welcome to today's edition of The Armchair Analyst, a 5-minute daily update on the ASX life-sciences sector.
There is a saying…
The biggest tree provides cover for the whole forest.
… and in healthcare, CSL is Thimmamma Marrimanu.
(I’ll save you the Google. Thimmamma Marrimanu is the largest tree in the world)
A strong CSL = a strong interest in healthcare investing.
(or at least a weak CSL drains confidence in healthcare investing)
Yesterday CSL was up 7%...
On a pretty run-of-the-mill announcement.
(Source: CSL)
CSL is set to launch a clinical trial on the safety and efficacy of plasma (blood) manufactured with its new Horizon 2 process.
Better yields of immunoglobulin from the same plasma (blood) donation.
Clinical activity starts mid-2027.
So there is still a while before clinical trial activity is set to start.
So while this announcement is good, did it warrant that big of a move in one day?
Probably not.
But expectations are low.
This is my chart to explain why stocks go down on good news.
But equally, it explains why stocks go up on regular updates:
So CSL’s move reflected that expectations were low and the stock was oversold.
… rather than the news was spectacular.
Earlier this week at Bio Connections I talked about how a sector-wide re-rate emerges.
Winners create winners.
More M&A.
More licencing deals.
More people making money off the healthcare sector will cause the top of the waterfall to overfill and capital will spill down earlier and earlier:
IF, CSL is one of those “winners” at the top of the waterfall…
AND, its share price is starting to move (up ~40% in 2 months)
THEN, its recovery may be the first sign that the top of the waterfall is filling.
… and a sector-wide bull market might just be around the corner.
Watch this space.
I’m writing this article from the office of EM Vision (ASX: EMV).
I’m here as part of my Biotech 165 Challenge, my quest to cover all 165 ASX-listed healthcare companies (about 60 done so far).
They are developing a portable device that can measure stroke on-site.
The goal?
This device on every ambulance around the world.
Full write-up coming soon.
Let’s dive in…
The Pulse Check
A bunch more 4C reports have been published, but I haven’t had a chance to go through them all. Here are just the quickfire highlights...…
Adherium (ASX: ADR) CEO Dawn Bitz will step down, with CCO John Perry appointed as Interim CEO. (ADR)
Cambium Bio (ASX: CMB) in its quarterly activities report highlights the Phase 3 clinical trial design for dry eye disease. (CMB)
🪑 First patient in the Phase 3 trial scheduled for CY2026 “contingent on funding”.
Phase 3 clinical trials aren’t cheap; CMB has $1M in the bank and a $12M market cap.
Will need to get creative to finance that one in the next few months.
Lumos Diagnostics (ASX: LDX) secures an exclusive distribution agreement with Alpha Medical for FebriDx rapid point-of-care diagnostics test in Romania. (LDX)
See you all tomorrow,
The Armchair Analyst
