Good morning, Armchair Army,
Welcome to today's edition of The Armchair Analyst, a 5-minute daily update on the ASX life-sciences sector.
How many times does someone need to hear your story before they take notice?
11 times.
That’s my magic number.
11.
It’s rough out there for companies raising capital…
But there IS money out there.
(You just have to get in front of as many investors as possible)
So far this week, I’ve seen about 15 biotech companies present across three events.
TIP Conference, Microcaps Conference and Titch Talks Biotech.
Turnout was good.
Not sure if it was just the allure of a “free lunch”…
(which is compelling, I know)
But it seemed that the retail investors were ready and activated.
The market is just looking “too cheap to ignore”…
Right now, many companies are fighting two things.
Inertia, and the risk-free rate.
Inertia = why buy now?
Risk-free rate = 10-year US Treasury bond, which re-prices “risk assets”
As the 10-year bond rate goes up…
Investors demand higher returns from speculative early-stage assets.
(like our drug development bets)
For ASX-listed companies, presenting can feel like you’re shouting into an empty room.
But think of it like this…
Each “notice” that you get builds the potential energy in your company.
So when the market does turn…
(which it does - these things work in cycles)
Your company is the first horse out of the gate.
The magic number is 11.
11 notices before someone pays attention.
So show up, and keep telling the story.
On that note, I want to highlight a couple of events I’ll be at in Melbourne next week.
EVENT 1: Control Bionics (ASX: CBL) lunch at the RACV Club.
The Pitch:
Control Bionics is one of my foundational Armchair Analyst “picks”.
A $31M market-cap company that has developed an FDA-cleared surface EMG product that reads muscle signals and lets people control devices with their brain.
Recently, it moved into the “sports & rehabilitation” sector.
Early customers include: The Kansas City Chiefs, PSG, Hawthorn, GWS, the British Olympic Team, NASCAR teams, and Rugby Australia.
Registration link: Click here to register
Where: RACV Club, Melbourne CBD.
When: Next Thursday, 29th October, 12:00 pm to 2:00 pm.
Capacity: Only 10 spots left. First come, first served.
EVENT 2: AI Panel Discussion After Market.
The Pitch:
A live panel discussion & presentations with three ASX-listed companies all about AI.
Alcidion (ASX: ALC), Cogstate (ASX: CGS) and Netwealth (ASX: NTD)
I’ll also be joined on the panel with analysts from Bell Potter and Canacord.
(you know… the “real” analysts)
Drinks and networking afterwards.
Registration link: Click here to register
Where: Investor Hub Offices, Melbourne CBD.
When: Next Thursday, 29th October, 4:30 pm to 7:00 pm.
I hope to see you there!
Let’s dive in…
The Pulse Check
Recce Pharmaceuticals (ASX: RCE) has secured an exclusive licensing agreement with Arrotex Pharmaceuticals for its diabetic foot infections cream. (RCE)
🪑 Arrotex is Australia’s largest generic and private-label pharmaceutical company.
Arrotex products make up one in every two prescriptions in Australia.
Great external validation.
CSL (ASX: CSL) appoints Deborah Waterhouse as CEO & Managing Director. (CSL)
🪑 Good luck, Deborah.
CSL was also slapped with a class action lawsuit today.
Brutal way to start off your tenure:
Amplia Therapeutics (ASX: ATX) reports 1 confirmed and 1 unconfirmed partial response from the AMPLICITY trial. It also shares several other updates on future programs. (ATX, held)
🪑 Although AMPLICITY had to stop early, it had 2 partial responses in 3 patients on the trial, which is very good.
One patient is now 2 years cancer-free from the ACCENT trial (where it announced 5 complete responses earlier this year).
More activity coming soon, with ethics approval for two more trials in the wings.
Big drop in the stock recently - on no news - I’m holding.
Patrys (ASX: PAB) advances its Phase 1a trial for intravenous delirium treatment to Cohort 2 after confirming safety and tolerability. (PAB)
🪑 Milestone ticked!
LTR Pharma (ASX: LTP) receives ethics approval for an investigator-led clinical study to evaluate SPONTAN® in pulmonary arterial hypertension. (LTP)
🪑 Investigator-led studies are best because someone ELSE pays for them.
Starpharma (ASX: SPL) receives $3.5 million from the Australian R&D Tax Incentive program. (SPL)
Arovella Therapeutics (ASX: ALA) receives a $4.03 million R&D Tax Incentive refund. (ALA)
Invex Therapeutics (ASX: IXC) requests a trading halt pending an announcement of a material acquisition and capital raise. (IXC)
🪑 Been watching this as a shell for over nine months now. Looks like they’ve finally pulled the trigger on a new asset.
TrivarX (ASX: TRI) engages Syntro Health for Stabl-Im clinical trial formulation. (TRI, held)
🪑 TRI's feasibility study on its imaging platform is on track for Q1 next year.
Went for coffee with Tony Keating yesterday, who sits on the TRI board (ResApp's former CEO).
Some good people behind this company.
BlinkLab (ASX: BB1) commences its nationwide autism screening program in Morocco. (BB1)
🪑 Really curious about how this one goes. Very out of left field, but it could become a playbook for rolling out BlinkLab’s autism detection product in other nations.
Orthocell (ASX: OCC) reports $3.6M revenue for the September quarter, driven by a 25% increase in US Remplir sales for its nerve repair device; maintains a $39M cash position. (OCC)
🪑 US Remplir sales totalled $400,000 for the quarter. My guess is that the market was hoping for more.
QoQ sales were down, while YoY sales were up.
Alcon acquires Neurotech Pharmaceuticals for $550M, gaining approved cell therapy Encelto for rare vision loss. (Business Wire)
🪑 Alcon is the partner for Tetratherix (ASX: TTX, Armchair Pick, Held), an eye spacing franchise.
(one of six franchises that TTX is developing)
While this acquisition is in a different indication, it does show Alcon’s appetite for acquisitions (and a potential upside benchmark for what that franchise could be worth).
See you all tomorrow.
The Armchair Analyst
What is an armchair pick?
An Armchair Pick is an invite-only spot I reserve for my highest-conviction investment ideas.
It's a paid arrangement, but to align myself, I only take my fee in shares - half escrowed for 6 months, half for 12.
It is general commentary only, not personal financial advice or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold. Always see the disclosure at the top of the article and do your own research.
