When You See Red, I See Opportunity.

Good morning, Armchair Army,

Welcome to today's edition of The Armchair Analyst, a 5-minute daily update on the ASX life-sciences sector.

Oil up.

Small-caps down.

A story as old as time.

… and it’s brutal out there right now.

This chart in the Market Index weekend email says it all.

Capital rolling into the ASX Top 20…

While Emerging and Small Caps are bleeding.

In our little corner of the market, CSL has made a mighty recovery.

Almost back to $200 per share.

(A bona fide 2-bag from the June lows).

Well done to those who “picked the bottom” on that one.

But the rise in CSL just masks the broader challenge for the healthcare sector.

The reality is that it’s tough out there.

Good news being sold into.

Bad news being slaughtered.

… and even no news is still causing stocks to fall.

Sellers are getting out, and buyers are drying up. 

But when I see red, I see opportunity.

Buyers have the power in this market.

Everyone needs cash… 

Especially now, as we head into 4C reporting season, with some thin-looking cash balances out there.

I’ve seen some particularly brutal term sheets floating around.

Discounts. Options. Piggyback Options. 

(I even saw one with a “free share” for every 4 shares bid).

Anything to bring in the capital.

Which is why I am on the hunt for Armchair Pick #4.

So far this year, I have looked at over 120 companies, written about 75 of them, and nominated THREE as my Armchair Picks for 2026.

If you have an ASX-listed company that you think I should take a close look at, please reply to this email.

I read (and respond to) every email!

The great saying goes…

"The time to buy is when there's blood in the streets."

So that’s what I’m doing.

ALSO, we have just 5 spots left for the Control Bionics (ASX: CBL) lunch.

This Thursday in Melbourne, reserve your spot now…

Let’s dive in…

CSL (ASX: CSL) announces Dr Brian McNamee's retirement, with Gordon Naylor appointed as next Chair effective 31 March 2027. (CSL)

🪑 26 years at the top. Good innings.

Invex Therapeutics (ASX: IXC) will acquire Rekover Therapeutics and its Phase 2 multiple sclerosis asset. Tenmile to cornerstone a $10 million capital raise. (IXC)

🪑 Been watching this shell for a while.

Nice acquisition.

Genetic Signatures (ASX: GSS) added a new resolution to its November Annual General Meeting, giving shareholders a chance to vote on the proposed merger with Microba. (GSS)

🪑 FIRST, votes announced this Wednesday for BCAL’s 249D against the Genetic Signatures board.

THEN, the vote on the merger at the AGM on November 16th.

Watch this space.

Mayne Pharma (ASX: MYX) reports 1Q FY27 unaudited revenue of $95.7M (down 2% PcP) and underlying EBITDA of $5.3 million (down 52% PcP). (MYX)

🪑 Not the best quarter for Mayne, with derm sales declining.

I’m catching up with the team in the CBD today. Will have an update.

ReNerve Limited (ASX: RNV) reports its strongest quarterly sales to date, $584k, for its nerve repair product. (RNV)

🪑 Green shoots of revenue have appeared.

Nice work.

New startup tax rules will drop this week according to the Australian Treasurer. (Startup Daily)

🪑 We’ll get much-needed answers on R&D financing and CGT Changes for our sector.

AusBiotech has been lobbying hard for this one.

Moderna and Merck published more data on their cancer vaccine showing a 42% risk reduction in a Phase 3 advanced melanoma trial. (Stat News)

Boehringer Ingelheim and Microsoft collaborate on AI-powered digital patient twins and AI in clinical trial development. (Microsoft)

🪑 AI to replace the placebo group? Would be very interesting.

Here’s the quote:

“Using modelling and predictive outcomes and advanced trial simulation to support a synthetic or hybrid control arm”.

Roche pays Zymeworks US$55 million upfront and US$813 million in milestones for a trispecific T cell engager. (FierceBiotech)

🪑 It’s amazing what big pharma will pay just for a Phase 1a asset. Shows the power (and interest) in multi-specific products. 

Good validation for Imunexus - my first “watchlist” company.

Gilead Sciences acquires PepStar Therapeutics' IL-23R inhibitor program for US$1.3B upfront. (FierceBiotech) 

🪑 You thought the last story was a lot to pay for a Phase 1 asset.

This is more than US$1 billion upfront.

See you all tomorrow.

The Armchair Analyst

What is an armchair pick?

An Armchair Pick is an invite-only spot I reserve for my highest-conviction investment ideas.

It's a paid arrangement, but to align myself, I only take my fee in shares - half escrowed for 6 months, half for 12.

It is general commentary only, not personal financial advice or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold. Always see the disclosure at the top of the article and do your own research.