A Deep Dive into Brain-Computer Interfaces: The US$400 Billion Industry

Welcome to today's edition of The Armchair Analyst, a 5-minute daily update on the ASX life-sciences sector.

In 2024, Morgan Stanley published a research report on the total addressable market for Brain-Computer Interface technology.

US$400 billion.

… in the US alone:

Last week I announced Control Bionics (ASX: CBL) as my third High Conviction Armchair Analyst Pick.

Read the full initiation note here: My Third Armchair Pick: Control Bionics (ASX: CBL)

Entry price 7.5 cents (priced at the recent $10M capital raise). 

T1 shares come online today.

Over the past 20 years, CBL has developed a technology that reads electrical signals and lets people control devices with their minds. 

(It was first developed with Steven Hawking)

Over the weekend, I went down a big rabbit hole to see what other “Brain Computer Interface” technologies were out there and what the potential applications for this tech could be…

Gaming?

Elon Musk’s Neuralink has enabled a paralysed patient to play Mario Kart with his thoughts.

Defence?

The Australian Army has run a demonstration where a soldier steered a robot dog using their brain signals.

Healthcare? Sports? Rehab? Wearables?

Just on the wearables front.

Here is a demonstration of Meta using the exact same type of technology as CBL to use micromovements to control the Meta glasses:

Key learning from my deep dive…

Brain-computer interface technology has a long history in science, but is yet to find a killer commercial use case.

It’s still very early, and most of the technology is being developed by universities and well-funded startups in the clinical stages.

Not CBL.

CBL already has… 

An FDA-approved product on the market.

Its own HCPCS reimbursement code.

No invasive surgery.

Revenue and sales right now in the US.

It has deals with top-tier names, including Apple (integrating Apple's BCI protocol), Paris Saint-Germain (a pilot deal for sports performance), and the Mayo Clinic (medical research on the potential for rehab).

My full investment memo is here:

So let's do a deep dive today into the brain-computer interface.

Disclosure: Armchair Analyst Media Pty Ltd owns CBL shares and will own 1,458,518 if all resolutions are passed at the August General Meeting. CBL has also engaged Armchair Analyst for investor awareness services. This information is general in nature and does not constitute personal financial advice.

But first…

A LOT of announcements today; looks like everyone has been waiting for June to end…

Control Bionics (ASX: CBL) CEO Jeremy Steele's presentation at LSI Asia 2026, highlighting their non-invasive, neural-signal platform technology. (CBL)

🪑 Title of the preso: “Designing Medtech for the Consumer World”.

Exactly the topic I’m covering today!

INOVIQ (ASX: IIQ) was unable to report results from its 1,200-patient retrospective trial to detect ovarian cancer because the samples it had secured had degraded. (IIQ)

🪑 Absolute disaster. 

But a risk with all diagnostics (particularly when running a retrospective study) - good sample quality is imperative.

Algorae Pharmaceuticals (ASX: 1AI) secures a NSW Health public hospital supply contract for three years with potential extensions. (1AI)

🪑 The way that I think about 1AI is that they’ve taken the sales “dream team” from EBOS and Sandoz and are leveraging those skills and relationships to build a profitable generics sales business in Australia.

This deal with NSW Health is the first real commercial sale under this business strategy.

Nice work.

Noxopharm Limited (ASX: NOX) has created an advanced animal model to accelerate its immuno-oncology program in collaboration with the Hudson Institute. (NOX)

🪑 I met the Hudson Institute scientist behind NOX’s technology a few weeks back. 

It’s essentially been his life’s work, and that publication in Nature earlier in the year was huge validation of the technology.

Mesoblast (ASX: MSB) receives FDA Biologic Licence Application filing number and requests modular review for rexlemestrocel-L, targeting heart failure patients with LVADs. (MSB)

🪑 Milestone ticked.

Imugene (ASX: IMU) reports a complete response in a Mantle Cell Lymphoma patient in its azer-cel Phase 1b trial. (IMU)

🪑 Nice job; this follows up from the Complete Response reported yesterday as well.

Syntara (ASX: SNT) reports 60% recruitment in its Phase 1b trial for SNT-9465 in hypertrophic scars, aimed at supporting an FDA IND application for the first approved scarring treatment. (SNT)

🪑 Milestone ticked. Final recruitment scheduled for this quater.

AdAlta (ASX: 1AD) has made a further US$1M milestone payment to its Chinese partner for a licensed CAR-T therapy, following the treatment of 5 additional patients in China. (1AD)

Enlitic (ASX: ENL) secures its first Australian Ensight subscription contract with Lumus Imaging, valued at US$248,000 (~A$359,000) over three years. (ENL)

Biome Australia (ASX: BIO) reports record FY26 sales revenue of $23.9M, up 30% on FY25, driven by domestic demand and international expansion. (BIO)

🪑 Softer than expected sales compared to some analysts’ forecasts.

Memphasys (ASX: MEM) secures A$430K exclusive three-year agreement with IVF Envimed for the Felix sperm separation system in Thailand. (MEM)

🪑 Nice contract - contracted FY26 revenues now ~$3M.

Chimeric Therapeutics (ASX: CHM) appoints Hawkesbury Partners to conduct a review to explore “strategic and funding options”. (CHM)

🪑 I’m still a CHM shareholder, but I wasn’t a fan of this announcement… are they looking to raise capital again? “Funding options” scared me. Also, not sure why an independent advisor is needed for this?   

If the board doesn’t think the value of the company and its assets is reflected in the share price… just buy the stock on the market; don’t just say that in an announcement.

Echo IQ Limited (ASX: EIQ) secures ~$110M through an institutional placement at A$1.45 per share. (EIQ)

🪑 Huge!

Enlitic, Inc. (ASX: ENL) requests a trading halt pending a capital raise. (ENL)

Recce Pharmaceuticals (ASX: RCE) receives a $3.67M tax refund. (RCE)

So, where did it all start?

The origins of the Brain-Computer Interface date back to 1924.

That's when a German psychiatrist, Hans Berger, discovered electroencephalography…

Also known as brain waves.

(This is what it looked like.)

Over the years, scientists studied how these brain waves could be used to connect to electrical devices.

Also known as a brain-computer interface.

The term itself was coined by Jacques Vidal at UCLA in a 1973 paper.

His 1977 experiment was the first real application. 

A subject hooked up to electrodes, moving a cursor-like object through a maze on a screen.

That was the late 70s.

Amazing science, NOT a practical product.

Today, the Brain-Computer Interface market looks a lot different.

Companies are leveraging this technology to build commercial products for both medical and consumer use.

At the top of the tree is Elon Musk's Neuralink.

A US$650 million Series E, closed in early 2025, at a US$9 billion pre-money valuation.

Then you have Synchron, which my cousin co-founded.

They raised ~US$200 million in late 2025, taking total funding to ~US$345 million at a valuation of about US$1 billion.

And there are a few others in the space, notably Paradromics (because it was in the news last week).

It has raised around US$87 million in venture funding, and implanted its first human patient last week:

The goal for each of these is the same.

Help people who can't move interact with the world using their brain waves.

… because their brain still works.

But when you look at all of these companies, they're still deep in clinical trials, small-scale, and require very specific (and risky) brain surgery.

CBL already has a product in market and has been selling into the Assistive Technology space for years.

(A space that is dominated by “eye-track software”)

Eye-tracking software is the standard.

It is used by people who are paralysed to communicate with a screen; it is relatively unreliable, but the sales reps for those companies are deeply embedded into the market.

So, six months ago CBL made the decision NOT to go head-to-head with eye track.

… instead it signed distribution deals with the two largest providers: Tobii and PRC as a complementary product offering:

So while the “invasive surgery” technologies are still in clinic, CBL’s product is getting into the hands of customers through its distribution partners with hundreds of sales reps across the US.

That's the assistive technology space…

But what about the “blue sky potential”?

Consumer applications? Gaming? Wearables? Defence?

Where does CBL fit in?

To answer that, we need to understand the difference between CBL's surface EMG and the invasive approach taken by other BCI providers.

CBL’s tech is known as surface EMG.

Surface EMG is a device that is placed on the skin and reads signals from the brain to the muscles:

Neurolink’s technology is a bit different.

It requires brain surgery and reads signals directly from the brain.

Both technologies read the body's electrical signals; both are solving the same problem (brain-to-computer action), but they sit on very different ends of the spectrum:

So, what you give up in signal strength, you gain in safety, flexibility and practicality.

In 2019, Meta acquired CTRL-Labs for a reported sum of up to US$1 billion.

Very similar tech to CBL.

Surface EMG.

Meta has big plans for this technology, and it's all around wearables.

Earlier this year Meta announced six research grants to universities to help develop the next layer of surface EMG input.

It's clear what Meta is trying to build.

The ability to interact with the world, and with the Meta glasses, through touch and micro-movement alone.

Here's a demonstration on the Meta website:

Here's how the micro-movements are picked up with EMG:

And this is what the Meta Neural Band looks like:

Now, that device is still very much in prototype phase. You can’t buy it on the market. 

Don’t worry… I’ve tried.

You know what isn't in prototype phase? CBL’s product.

It’s being used right now for two key applications:

But there is an opportunity for this tech to become the next big wearables sensation.

This is one of the biggest thematics in the medtech and consumer space.

WHOOP, the screenless fitness band, raised US$575 million in March 2026.

At a US$10.1 billion valuation.

Oura, the smart ring that tracks your sleep, heart rate and temperature, raised over US$900 million in October 2025.

At a ~US$11 billion valuation.

Now, I don't think CBL is going to build its own ring or wristband.

But for the founders and players out there who DO want to build in this space?

CBL has the technology to do it, and has opened its platform to anyone that wants to create this kind of tech.

CBL already has a deal with Apple's BCI protocol that lets anyone build on top of it.

The next WHOOP. The next Oura. The next big wearable.

Built on the Control Bionics platform.

A win for the founders, who don't have to sink the upfront capital into developing their own sEMG hardware.

And a win for CBL, who clips the ticket on the way through.

Humans are becoming more like cyborgs.

We already have all of the world’s knowledge in our pockets.

Brain-computer interfaces are the next evolution.

Meta and Apple are both making big bets on the wearables space.

(In fact, Apple has basically abandoned any idea of going after AI and is now heavily focusing on hardware products).

Control Bionics has developed technology over 20 years to shrink surface EMG to the size of a paperclip (without compromising on signal).

Where does that take them?

Right now the big focus is on the sports performance and rehabilitation space…

Its product was designed for the most disabled person.

Someone who cannot move.

Which means it collects the best signals of any surface EMG product on the market.

That US$400 billion TAM highlighted by Morgan Stanley reflects the potential of brain-computer interface technology.

From gaming to defence to sports to healthcare to consumer.

And CBL is right in the frame.

See you all tomorrow

The Armchair Analyst