Good morning,
Welcome to today’s edition of The Armchair Analyst, a 5-minute daily update on the ASX life-sciences sector.
Bloodbath yesterday.
Bounceback today?
The market can be a fickle thing…
It’s amazing how much Trump’s decision to bomb Iran can have such a meaningful impact on ASX-listed biotech and medtech companies.
But it’s all linked together.
Oil and energy are the underlying costs of everything: transport, food, power.
So the higher the oil price, the higher inflation and more likely for an interest rate hike.
The next interest rate decision by the Reserve Bank of Australia will be next week, with the market pricing in a 20-30% chance of an increase.
Interest rates are like a sponge for money in the system.
Higher interest rates mean:
Lower valuations on pre-revenue assets (valued on future cash flows),
Less capital available as people move risk-off, AND
People will actually sell positions to move to cash.
The trifecta…
BUT, with the oil price back down under US$90 it, the panic may be short-lived (it briefly touched US$110 on Monday).
Up, down, up, down.
The market is essentially trying to “price in” how long and protracted this conflict will be, changing its mind as new information comes to light.
So, how did I play the panic day?
Well, I de-risked out of some non-core positions AND bought more of the core positions.
These fire sale days don’t come around often, but it can be a scary thing pressing the BUY button when looking at a sea of red.
It’s important that, if you choose to play the market these days, you play in high-conviction positions.
Not financial advice, but that’s my strategy.
Double down on what I like and shed what I don’t.
So, on that note, let’s dive in…
The Pulse Check
Yesterday was Labour Day in Melboure so I’ve got a double round of pulse check for you today.
Telix Pharmaceuticals (ASX: TLX) achieves primary safety and tolerability signals in Part 1 of its Phase 3 prostate cancer therapeutic trial. (TLX)
🪑Safety is an important signal in these cancer trials; however, the big money-maker will be efficacy data in Part 2 of the trial, comparing TLX’s product in combination with the standard of care against the standard of care alone.
Clarity Pharmaceuticals (ASX: CU6) achieves the target number of patients in its Phase 3 registrational trial for prostate cancer diagnostics. (CU6)
🪑I chuckled when I saw Telix and Clarity with material clinical progress on the exact same day… let’s see which news the market likes more:
Nanosonics (ASX: NAN) secures first FDA 510(k) clearance for its CORIS system for cleaning surgical equipment.
🪑 This is the first of two 510(k) applications for the CORIS system. Great result, but the market was likely expecting this about 6 weeks earlier. So good news - but delayed.
Tetratherix (ASX: TTX) published early data showing no safety issues with its injectable spacer technology. Its JV partner, Tutelix, was able to raise $5 million based on this early data, with the partnership looking to immediately move into a pivotal trial. (TTX)
🪑 I like what TTX is doing here. Build the platform, and let the partner raise money and run the trials.
Dimerix (ASX: DXB) last adult patient received its first dose for DXB’s Phase 3 clinical trial for FSGS. Full 2-year study results are now scheduled for completion in March 2028. (DXB)
🪑I actually bought some Dimerix last week and yesterday at around ~40 cents, given its 12-month lows and a view that it may get accelerated approvals soon.
However, the mentions of “accelerated approvals” have dried up (with no mention in this announcement), and the company has yet to commence the Powering Analysis, which will provide key information for accelerated approvals.
Looks like the company is trying to set expectations low. I’ll wait for the powering analysis study to see how this plays out.
Mesoblast (ASX: MSB) director Gregory George purchased on-market securities valued at US$16.37M. (MSB)
🪑That is a HUGE on-market purchase. I did a bit of a double-take when I saw that one.
Orthocell (ASX: OCC) appoints LEDA Orthopaedics as exclusive UK distributor for Remplir. Approvals expected in Q3 FY26. (OCC)
🪑 I was speaking to a surgeon yesterday who was impressed when the Orthocell reps came through his practice last week, demonstrating the Remplir product.
With a number of tissue repair companies on the ASX, I’m working on a guest post for this month, “How surgeons actually decide to buy medical products.”
Stay tuned…
Pro Medicus (ASX: PME) announced two 5-year contract renewals, totalling A$40M, with MedStar ($31M) and Zwanger-Pesiri ($9M). (PME)
🪑 Friend of the newsletter, Kneppy Invests, published a deep dive on these Pro Medicus deals on his YouTube Channel. Worth a watch here: PME DCF and Deals
TruScreen’s (ASX: TRU) 297-patient clinical study on its cervical cancer screening test was published in the peer-reviewed Journal of Sichuan University. (TRU)
🪑 Peer-reviewed studies are important clinical evidence to drive adoption - one of the four pillars of commercialisation for any diagnostics company.
Rhythm Biosciences (ASX: RHY) secures NATA accreditation for its lab in Parkville, Victoria, delivering its ColoSTAT® colorectal cancer blood test. (RHY)
🪑 Nice milestone ticked.
Island Pharmaceuticals (ASX: ILA) has partnered with the Burnet Institute to identify high-value targets for ILA to develop treatments against viral threats (such as Measles, Chikungunya, and Ross River Virus).
🪑 ILA has been happy so far with the progress of its treatment for Marburg Disease and is looking to replicate this accelerated “animal approval” playbook for other indications.
EVE Health Group (ASX: EVE) has completed R&D activities on three oral sprays that reformulate old drugs with a new delivery mechanism for erectile dysfunction and premature ejaculation. (EVE)
Mayne Pharma (ASX: MYX) launches DistributeRx in the US, a direct-to-patient healthcare solutions platform aimed at simplifying prescription access. (MYX)
Cash Injection
Micro-X (ASX: MX1) has secured $1.6M in milestone payment from ARPA-H (the US Government’s Advanced Research Projects Agency) after completing the first Full Body CT laboratory test bench. (MX1)
🪑 Nice non-dilutive funding.
Imugene Limited (ASX: IMU) is in a trading halt for a capital raise. (IMU)
🪑 I wrote about IMU in December last year, and the trickiness of navigating the funding pathway now that it is squarely in the frame for a Phase 3 trial.
Read the article here: Imugene’s Phase 3 Pathway Is Clear - Its Funding Path Isn’t
I’ll be very interested to see the termsheet on this one and how well the book is bid.
M&A, Big Pharma Wants a Wife
Lonza sells a 60% stake in its capsule business to Lone Star Funds for 1.7 billion Swiss francs (US$2.2 billion). (Fierce Pharma)
Servier acquires Day One Biopharmaceuticals for $2.5B to expand childhood brain tumour portfolio. (Bio Space)
Agilent to acquire Biocare Medical in a $950 million all-cash deal; Biocare develops instruments and materials used in cancer research. (Reuters)
See you all tomorrow,
The Armchair Analyst
