Selling Too Early: The Trade That Made Nyrada’s Run Possible

Good morning,

Welcome to today’s edition of The Armchair Analyst, a 5-minute daily update on the ASX life-sciences sector.

Let me ask you a question… What is worse?

For the small-cap punters, the answer is B every time.

It’s almost a rite of passage for any new investor to sell a stock just before it goes up.

I’ll never forget my first ever trade.

It was at the peak of the COVID-19 crash in March 2020, just four months after I got a job at Next Investors.

Looking at a sea of red in the markets, I was like… this is the time to take the plunge.

The company hit hardest was Qantas, and so that was the one I was going to buy.

I had a theory that, as Australia’s national carrier, it would be bailed out by the government and that the price would rebound.

On the 17th of March 2020, I put on a ~$2,100 trade (more than I could afford to lose at the time)... and within 1 day, I was down $400.

Feeling like I had bitten off more than I could chew, I closed out the position at a loss… 

… only to check the news 20 minutes later that the government HAD bailed out Qantas for $715 million.

I was right, but sold too early.

Qantas now trades at more than $10, I sold at $2.65…

I learned a lot about conviction that day.

Essentially, stick to the “bet”, and sometimes it’s better to be wrong and take a loss than to be right and sell out too early. 

But it's not individual investors who can sell too early; companies can do it too.

This brings us to the two stocks I wanted to put under the microscope today: Noxopharm (ASX: NOX) and Nyrada (ASX: NYR).

So, what happened?

If you look at the pure 12-month % gain, the best-performing ASX healthcare stock of 2025 was not 4DX…

It was Nyrada (ASX: NYR), a clinical-stage biotech company developing a treatment for brain injuries (like stroke, concussion and traumatic brain injury).

If you go back even further, another 12 months to January 2024, Nyrada was capped at just $3.5 million, with $4.65 million in the bank.

It had a NEGATIVE Enterprise Value of $1.1 million and a share price of just 2 cents.

So in two years, Nyrada has 58-bagged.

While the company published clinical data from its Phase 1 trial showing that its product was safe and well-tolerated in humans, the real turning point was when a big seller exited the stock.

(Shout out to Kneppy Investest for pointing this out on his January 30th episode)

You see, Nyrada was spun out of Noxopharm in 2021.

Noxopharm owned 33% at IPO and was diluted down, eventually selling its entire stake in the company at 7.5 cents in March this year for $2.5 million.

This was the turning point for the Nyrada share price, and it has now rallied to over $1.10, on the back of some relentless buying.

It wasn’t just the market buying up on a catalyst or a result; it was two big whales.

The first being Mark Azzi, and the second Matt Corp WA:

Like a force of nature, these two whales willed the share price up, continuing to buy on market.

And without the selling pressure from Noxopharm (who need the money for their own programs at the time) there was a clear sky for the share price to run.

The final kick-up in the share price in December last year appears to have come from retail shareholders and momentum traders. 

(or maybe we will find out that there is a third whale on screen)

So if Noxopharm had held on to its shares the whole way up, its Nyrada holdings would be worth about ~$33 million (which is larger than its current market cap of $28 million).

But this is not really fair to Noxopharm.

Their selling was likely the trigger for the rally, and in the counterfactual, if Noxopharm had not sold its shares in a direct cross trade but instead sold them in the market, a rally may never have eventuated.

So whichever scenario played out, it is unlikely Noxopharm could have realised the full value of their investment at >$1…

But we’ll never know.

The main takeaway for me is that once a seller is cleared, and buyers enter a clean register, THAT is a recipe for success.

I think that managing the share register was the most crucial factor in Nyrada’s success.

(and this isn’t easy)

Looking at Nyrada’s clinical results from 2025, while Phase 1 was positive, no “knock it out of the park” human efficacy data was released.

(This is generally the uplift point for most biotech stocks comes in.)

Nyrada starts its Phase 2 trial this quarter, and I’ll be watching closely to see if the efficacy results can justify its valuation.

So, what can I learn from the Nyrada story?

Finally, it’s natural to be frustrated when we sell out too early from a stock… but as my dad says: The bull market always starts the day after you’ve liquidated your portfolio.

If anyone can help me get in touch with someone from Nyrada, I would love the opportunity to meet with the team and profile the full story in my Biotech 165 Challenge.

I’ve also had a chance to meet with the Noxopharm team; they have some interesting technology of their own. Expect an investment memo on them shortly.

See you all tomorrow.

The Armchair Analyst

Today, I want to put a trade under the microscope that is way too familiar.

The “sell too early” trade.

But first…

Nexsen (ASX: NXN) lodges a pre-submission with the FDA to support its clinical validation program and 510(k) approval pathway for its rapid point-of-care diagnostics product. (NXN)

🪑 FDA response expected in ~70 days.

The US commercialisation of Orthocell’s (ASX: OCC) Remplir nerve repair system is now rolling out, with $90,000 in US sales last month. Total FYQ2 revenues are $3.2 million (+7% previous quarter, +45.2% previous FYQ2). (OCC)

Synthesis BioVentures has now raised $60 million for its biotech fund. (AFR)

The Hudson Institute ceases to be a substantial shareholder of Cleo Diagnostics (ASX: COV) following the sale of about 1 million shares between July and September last year. (COV)

🪑Cleo’s technology was initially developed in the Hudson Institute, and as part of the licensing agreement, it got ~7.5 million shares. These trade looks to be the organisation taking some money off the table.

Tim Lebbon of Nobel Investments becomes a substantial shareholder of Cann Group (ASX: CAN). (CAN)

🪑 Always a fun exercise: Google the shareholders.

Like this one - is that Tim Lebbon, award-winning British fantasy author with 50 novels… quietly loading up on a tiny cannabis microcap?

Or just someone with the same name…

Radiopharmaceutical company Aktis Oncology files for the first US biotech IPO for 2026. (Biopharma Dive)

Insilico Medicine secures $296M in an IPO on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange for its AI-driven drug discovery platform. (First World Pharma)