Today marks day 1 for the “Biotech 165 Challenge”.
There are 165 ASX-listed stocks in the biotech, medtech and healthcare sector.
My mission for 2026 is to understand all of them and publish why a retail investor might consider investing.
Essentially, I want to try to figure out for each stock: What is the ‘bet’?
Balancing the upside and opportunities, with the risks, catalysts, cap table and narrative.
The first company in this challenge is one I recently bought.
(Let’s be honest, I was always going to talk my own book for the first one!)
#1 of 165: Arovella Therapeutics (ASX: ALA).
An off-the-shelf cancer cell therapy technology aiming to move into human clinical trials.
You may have heard of CAR-T cancer cell therapies before.
These are specialised cancer treatments that take a patient’s own immune cells, transform them into cancer-seeking missiles and put them back into the patient to (hopefully) kill the cancer.
The first CAR-T product was approved by the FDA in 2017, sparking a race for this new cancer-killing technology.
Everyone wanted a piece.
But as time went on, it became clear that the first generation of CAR-T products was expensive and difficult to scale, and several big pharma companies exited their programs.
(Each treatment was individualised to a single patient after all, which made it very difficult to scale and incredibly expensive - $500,000 to $1M per patient)
ALA’s product is NOT a generation 1 CAR-T product - rather, the company is developing the NEXT generation of cancer therapies.
A single treatment from one cell donor that can be:
Manufactured at scale.
Stored and delivered rapidly.
Materially cheaper to produce.
ALA has had some very promising pre-clinical results that show in mice that its treatment is effective at killing cancer:
But this data is not new.
It has been available since I first became familiar with the stock in 2022, and ALA will need human data to take the company to the next level.
As part of the Biotech 165 Challenge, I assign each company a chair to describe the investment.
To me, ALA is The Showroom Chair - Looks impressive on the showroom floor, but it needs to be battle-tested under real-world conditions.
The real-world conditions are for ALA to test its technology in humans in a Phase 1 clinical trial.
The market has been waiting for at least 18 months for ALA to get its manufacturing right so that it can be approved for use in the clinic.
The manufacturing process is now complete, and ALA has filed an IND (Investigational New Drug) with the FDA to allow its product to be used in a phase 1 clinical trial in humans.
Last week, between Christmas and New Year’s, ALA submitted this application… setting the stage for Phase 1 this quarter…
When I saw that announcement, that is when I bought my stock - ALA was my 2026 “Holiday Trade”.
An update on my Holiday Trade: The trade I do once a year.
Two weeks ago, I published a newsletter titled “The Holiday Trade I do once a Year”.
I explained my investment theory that announcements between Christmas and New Year's are often missed by the broader market.
The theory is that while everyone is out enjoying the beach, announcements that materially change a company’s fortunes could be missed by the market.
On December 30th, at 12:18 pm, ALA dropped a 'non-price sensitive' statement stating that it had filed an IND for its off-the-shelf cell therapy.
... I check the market, no trades.
I snag a few shares at 7.6 cents (which is close to the 3-year lows of 6.8) before a bit more buying came in a few minutes later.
(ALA is trading about 9.3 cents now)
While the announcement was published at 12:18 pm, the first trades didn’t come in until 12:25 pm, 7 minutes after the news:
ALA is the exact type of stock that I was looking for when making a holiday trade.
Here is what I published just a few weeks earlier:
So here is how ALA stacked up:
ALA was a stock I had been tracking for about 4 years, and is one that I’m comfortable owning.
After the mishandled capital raise at the start of last year, the ALA has been consolidating around the 7-10 cent range.
ALA has a material catalyst in the first few months of the year - IND application and starting its Phase 1 trial
ALA has $21.90 million in the bank, so I don’t expect a capital raise any time soon.
Now that trade is locked in, I will look to ride ALA at least until the phase 1 clinical trial is announced and evaluate the investment based on how long it will take ALA to get to an interim data readout.
(This is not investment advice, but rather just what I’ve chosen to do and my own investment strategy that matches up to my risk profile).
Over the next 12 months as part of the Biotech 165 Challenge, I will be covering lots of different stocks from large cap staples to microcap battlers.
Expect about three new stocks per week. If there are any companies you'd like me to cover, please reply.
See you all tomorrow.
The Armchair Analyst
The Daily Pulse Check
A peer-reviewed scientific paper has been published in Autism Research on Blinklabs’ (ASX: BB1 | MC: $72M) smartphone-based autism assessment technology. (BB1)
🪑 Independent publication in peer-reviewed journals is crucial for new technologies to secure regulatory approvals and clinical adoption.
The FDA has told Island Pharmaseuticals (ASX: ILA | MC: $117M) that it needs a bit more time to finalise its response on the use of the Animal Rule for the development of ILA’s anti-viral drug Galadisivir. (ILA)
🪑 Probably a stretch to expect Washington to come out of the blocks on New Year’s Day with any sense of urgency.
Biome Australia (ASX: BIO | MC: $92M) announced strong FYQ2 sales for its probiotics products - $6.48 million (up 40.90% on the previous financial year Q2). (BIO)
A light news day on the market today, so I’ve also collected all of the stuff that you may have missed between the 21st of December and today…
The Holiday Catch-Up
Memphasis (ASX: MEM | MC: $18M) secured its CE Mark for its sperm separation product in Europe and signed a 5-year supply agreement with CFA Italia (A$925,000). (MEM, MEM)
🪑 CE Mark is like the European equivalent of an FDA clearance in the US.
I managed to pick up some shares of MEM in the recent shortfall placement.
BioMarin acquired the US licensing partner for Dimerix (ASX: DXB | MC: $330M) for US$4.8 billion. (DXB)
InovIQ (ASX: IIQ | MC: $56M) published results from its pre-clinical trial on an exosome-based CAR-NK therapy for breast cancer. 61.5% tumour reduction and 100% survival in mice. (IIQ)
ProMedicus (ASX: PME | MC: $23B) Board members have been hoovering up shares with more than $2 million bought over the Christmas period:
It looks like Paragon Care (ASX: PGC | MC: $364M) directors are doing the same (with director David Collins also buying $438,000 today). (PGC)
Genesis Capital withdrew its bid to acquire 100% of Monash IVF (ASX: MVF | MC: $292M) for 80 cents per share. (MVF)
The FDA gave Clarity Pharmaceuticals (ASX: CU6 | MC: $1.38B) positive feedback at its End-of-Phase meeting, setting the stage for a pivotal Phase 3 trial this year for its cancer diagnostics agent. (CU6)
Arovella Therapeutics (ASX: ALA | MC: $111M) filed its IND application with the FDA for its Phase 1 cancer trial. (ALA)
🪑 More on this one in a bit…
AdAlta (ASX: 1AD | MC: $9.2M) signed a co-development agreement with Shanghai Cell Therapy Group to develop a CAR-T product in markets outside of greater China. The product has shown a 63.5% overall recovery rate for mesothelioma in early studies. (1AD)
Artrya (ASX: AYA | MC: $800M) signed a 3rd US customer for an AI-based imaging product for coronary artery disease. (AYA)
The FDA denied Neurizon Therapeutics' (ASX: NUZ | MC: $50M) fast-track application status for its ALS treatment. (NUZ)
Ramsay Health Care (ASX: RHC | MC: $8B) acquired a bunch of private hospitals in Canberra from National Capital Private Hospital for $251M. (RHY)
Race Oncology (ASX: RAC | MC: $518M) appointed Beyond Drug Development as the Contract Research Organisation (CRO) for its Phase 1a/b lung cancer trial. (RAC)
Paradigm Biopharmaceuticals (ASX: PAR | MC: $145M) is now 25% recruited for its Phase 3 osteoarthritis trial. (PAR)
A couple of management moves:
Year in review: 10 standout stories in psychedelics. (Psychedelic Alpha)
🪑 A good read this one ^
Cash Injection
Mesoblast (ASX: MSB | MC: $3.55B) refinanced its debt with a new non-dilutive US$75 million credit line and an option to add a further US$50 million at a lower 8% interest rate. (MSB)
CONNEQT Health (ASX: CQT | MC: $32M) secured $3.1 million in an institutional placement at $0.045. The company's largest shareholder, C2 Ventures, participated for $1.2 million. (CQT)
Chimeric Therapeutics (ASX: CHM | MC: $8M) raised $8.4 million. $4.4 million through a placement and $4 million through a convertible note with a US Institutional Investor, and is now fully funded to complete its Phase 1/2 CAR-T trial. (CHM)
🪑 I participated in this one.
Invion (ASX: IVX | MC: $8M) secured $2 million in non-dilutive funding from the Korean Government’s research fund for its esophageal cancer pre-clinical program through its partner Hanlim. (IVX)
Enlitic (ASX: ENL | MC: $15M) secured $8 million via a convertible note facility. (ENL)
Memphasys (ASX: MEM | $18M) placed $580K under a shortfall offer at $0.003.
🪑 I participated in this one.
Neurizon Therapeutics (ASX: NUZ | MC: $50M) secured $7.1 million via a placement at $0.08 and $20 million via a convertible note facility with Obsidian Global. (NUZ)
NUZ also today opened its non-renounceable entitlement offer to raise up to $17.1 million on the same terms as the placement.
M&A, Big Pharma Wants a Wife
Abbvie signs a US$1.1 billion deal with China’s Zelgen Biopharmaceuticals for the ex-China rights to Zelgen’s lead oncology asset. (Bioworld)Did someone forward this email to you?
