Good morning,
Welcome to today’s edition of The Armchair Analyst, a 5-minute daily update on the ASX life-sciences sector.
It can be a hard pill to swallow when an ASX-listed biotech company changes direction.
But what of the new company reboot?
What of version 2.0?
There can be stocks that have been beaten down, so forgotten, that years after the pivot, they are actually sitting on the cusp of something genuinely interesting.
That is what I uncovered from the next stock in my Biotech 165 Challenge.
Company #9 of 165: Noxopharm (ASX: NOX)
But first…
The Pulse Check
Control Bionics (ASX: CBL | MC: $28M) signs a six-month pilot with Tobii Dynavox to evaluate the distribution of its brain-computer interface device across five northwestern states. (CBL)
🪑This is a deal that I’ve wanted to see for a while. Tobii Dynavox is the market leader in assistive communication, using its eye-tracking technology.
Disclosure: I hold CBL.
EM Vision’s (ASX: EMV | MC: $165M) pivotal trial for its portable brain scanner for stroke is now in full swing, with all seven hospitals now activated and recruiting. (EMV)
Cyclopharm’s (ASX: CYC | MC: $97M) Technegas lung ventilation imaging product gains preferred status in draft US clinical practice guidelines. (CYC)
Match 7 Technologies (ASX: M7T | MC: $105M) announced on Friday that it lost the Veterans Health contract for its medical imaging product. (M7T)
Late after market last Friday, Osteopore (ASX: OSX | MC: $7M) published a Change of Substantial Shareholder notice revealing that Advanced Opportunities Fund sold ~5M shares. (OSX)
🪑 I wrote about the OSX Becoming a Substantial Holder notice last week that was met with $1.4M in trading volume, and why it was important that the convertible note holder was now ‘in the light’.
Let’s see how this plays out and how many shares the Advanced Opportunities Fund decides to hold, but if they are a big seller in the market, it may snuff out any momentum the stock has gained over the last week.
It is still less than 10% of his holdings (but remember, he has $15,000,000M in convertible notes still to issue).
Shares of US-based company Corvus (NASDAQ: CRVS) nearly triple on the back of positive Phase 1 trial results for eczema. (Biopharma Dive)
🪑 Stocks are still rising on results.
The Report Card
4C Quarterly Reports:
Cash Injection
Nexsen’s (ASX: NXN | MC: $40M) partner RMIT University secures a $500k grant under Australia’s Economic Accelerator Program to advance NXN’s rapid point-of-care testing product for GBS. (NXN)
Neurizon (ASX: NUZ | MC: $60M) completes $5.88 million entitlement offer at $0.08. (NUZ)
HeraMED (ASX: HMD | MC: $46M) completes a $3.2 million placement at $0.04. (HMD)
Adheris Health (ASX: AHE | MC: $14M) just received $6.1M in holdback payment from the sale of its ANZ Divestment. (AHE)
Actinogen Medical (ASX: ACW | MC: $160M) secures $4.3M second-tranche, non-dilutive R&D tax funding from Endpoints Capital, part of $13.8m facility. (ACW)
Cynata Therapeutics (ASX: CYP | MC: $74M) announced the first drawdown of $1.2M from its at-the-market facility on Friday last week. (CYP)
The National Reconstruction Fund took a $20 million preferred equity stake in Australian neuroscience and brain mapping company Omniscient Neurotechnology. (NRF)
M&A, Big Pharma Wants a Wife
Merck is reportedly no longer in talks to acquire Revolution Medicines following a disagreement over the $30 billion price tag. (WSJ)
Under the Microscope
ASX-listed biotech companies are always reinvesting themselves.
This is part of the game.
Not every asset works out, and it’s the company's responsibility to recognise this and pivot.
It can be a hard pill to swallow for existing shareholders, as they are confronted with the decision…
Back the management on its new direction, or sell out and find a new investment?
Most retail investors chose to park their cash elsewhere, chase the new shiny thing with a faster time to the next catalyst.
BUT, there can be stocks that have been beaten down so much, and are so forgotten, that years after the pivot, they are actually sitting on the cusp of something genuinely interesting.
That is what I uncovered from the next stock in my Biotech 165 Challenge.
Company #9 of 165: Noxopharm (ASX: NOX)
What’s the story?
NOX originally IPOd in 2016 as a single-molecule cancer asset.
You might remember NOX from my Nyrada (ASX: NYR) write-up: The Problem With Being the Best Stock in the Market.
Nyrada was a spinout from NOX, and when NOX sold its Nyrada shares last year, it kicked off the generational run that crowned Nyrada the best-performing healthcare stock of 2025.
Back to NOX for a second…
Since the IPO in 2016, NOX has spent roughly $60 million to develop the cancer asset; it completed a Phase 1, but the board decided to pull the plug in 2023.
The reason?
Recruitment.
Hospitals were having difficulty recruiting patients because the asset was taken as a suppository.
Now THAT is a hard pill to swallow.
One day, they are a single-asset company in two cancer clinical trials; the next, they are back in pre-clinical studies with a new asset.
The real question for investors is not whether NOX should have reinvented itself (if the trials aren't working, there's no reason to keep spending money on it and wasting shareholder capital); it’s whether the new version is stronger than the last.
So what is NOX 2.0?
NOX is developing a first-line treatment for inflammation.
Inflammation is big business in Pharma.
The best-selling drug at the time is an anti-inflammatory: Humira.
US$240 billion since 2003.
NOX is looking to develop Humira 2.0 by developing its own anti-inflammation product.
So, how does it work?
Inflammation is a normal immune response. It helps fight infection and repair tissue.
The problem is that inflammation doesn’t switch off, which can create a destructive cycle in which the body overreacts and starts to attack itself.
These are the basis for autoimmune disease.
Scientists are still not too sure what causes these diseases…
But one doctor at the Hudson Institute in Australia developed a theory that inflammation is caused by an imbalance between good RNA (from the body’s own cells) and bad RNA (from foreign sources).
When this balance is out of whack, the theory is that it triggers an excess immune response and, in turn, inflammation.
NOX’s product works by inserting synthetic RNA into the body to restore the balance and reduce the cascading immune response.
NOX has a Composition of Matter patent over this process.
If the theory is right, and this is a breakthrough discovery on how inflammation works, NOX may have its hands on a true platform product across all areas of inflammation.
Right now, NOX has literally thousands of these different “NOX RNA” sequences, which it can apply to multiple potential autoimmune diseases caused by inflammation.
NOX deliberately chose to target Lupus first, a skin-based autoimmune disease.
This is because Lupus is a low-hanging fruit that offers local delivery, easier clinical endpoints, and faster development timelines.
(and after the challenges of recruiting patients into a trial with a suppository in the NOX 1.0, the company learned its lesson and went after a “cream”).
Still, Lupus is a $3.2 billion market, and last week NOX completed its Phase 1 clinical trial.
No safety, no pain.
The next 12 months for NOX are about retelling the story and finding new investors for the Phase 2 program.
It had $930K in the bank with a $2.8 million R&D tax to come soon.
For me, I like these types of re-invention stories.
It’s like meeting an old friend for the first time in 10 years and realising that they’ve matured into a completely different person.
… and you realise why you might have liked them in the first place.
Often, the market forgets about companies that have had to pivot.
But when it catches on, it can catch on quickly.
I think that the next capital raise will be important for the company.
Now that it has some runs on the board with a well-executed Phase 1 trial, will NOX be able to generate more institutional interest in this new story?
While the NOX 1.0 stigma remains a headwind, I think pursuing the best-selling drug of all time will resonate with new shareholders.
I’m looking forward to a big 2026 for the company and, hopefully, starting its Phase 2 trial sometime this year.
A big thank you to NOX’s CEO, Gisela, for helping to tell the story.
See you all tomorrow.
The Armchair Analyst
