Good morning,
Welcome to today’s edition of The Armchair Analyst, a 5-minute daily update on the ASX life-sciences sector.
When it comes to wellness trends, I am often late to the party.
(Still trying to wrap my head around the gut microbiome and keto diets).
If I hear about something once, I generally ignore it.
Hear about it twice, I notice.
Hear about it three times… (in one weekend?)
I'm paying attention.
This weekend, I could not escape something in my algorithm.
Peptides.
The trend that has captured consumers' imagination is starting to scare the healthcare industry.
But first…
The Pulse Check
Cynata Therapeutics (ASX: CYP) completes the 100-day primary evaluation period for the last patient in its Phase 2 trial of acute GvHD. Results expected in June 2026. (CYP)
🪑 Big milestone. I’m looking forward to these results.
Aroa Biosurgery (ASX: ARX) wound-healing product outperforms the current standard of care in a 12-week, 150-patient, head-to-head clinical trial for complex, hard-to-heal wounds. (ARX)
🪑 Great result. This will support US reimbursement and product adoption.
Algorae Pharmaceuticals (ASX: 1AI) partners with Peter MacCallum Cancer Centre to advance the 24 candidates from its AI drug discovery platform. Results expected within six months. (1AI)
🪑 1AI’s options expire tomorrow, options are exercisable at $0.012, and the price is $0.017. Will be interesting to see if these get underwritten.
Alterity Therapeutics (ASX: ATH) receives FDA feedback from a Type C meeting on its Phase 3 development program for ATH434 in Multiple System Atrophy. (ATH)
🪑 Milestone ticked.
Genetic Signatures (ASX: GSS) announces a $5M cost-reduction plan by FY2027 through a major organisational restructure. (GSS)
🪑 GSS has been hammered in the last few weeks. Multiple large funds are selling down positions, including Regal, Mercer, Perennial, and Asia Union.
The company is trading at well below cash backing - and this might be the first sign of the turnaround. Still a long road to go.
Botanix Pharmaceuticals (ASX: BOT) deferred two API purchases worth ~$7.5M each to 2027 and 2028. (BOT)
🪑 A second company is announcing a ‘cost-cutting’ exercise.
It will be interesting to see if these become more commonplace over the next few months.
Rhythm Biosciences (ASX: RHY) expands to 78 blood collection centres for its colorectal screening test. (RHY)
Quick correction on the Pulse Check from last Friday.
I suggested that CLINUVEL’s render of its conference booth was AI-generated. After seeing the photos from the event, it’s clearly NOT AI, and the team had put a lot of effort into setting this up. I hope it all went well.
Cash Injection
Atomo Diagnostics (ASX: AT1) completes a $4M capital raise at 3.3 cents per share. (AT1)
🪑 AT1 with an opportunistic raise here. Copying the playbook from Lumos Diagnostics, but on a smaller scale.
M&A, Big Pharma Wants a Wife
Eli Lilly reaches US$2.75B deal with Insilico to bring AI-developed drugs to the global market. (CNBC)
🪑 Good new for a company like 1AI, this deal dropping the day its options expire.
Otsuka to acquire MDMA-analogue drug developer Transcend Therapeutics for US$1.23B. (First World Pharma)
🪑 Another big deal in the MDMA/psychedelics space.
Under the Microscope
Retail punters invest “macro theme” first.
They spot a trend, they want to bet on it, and then they go hunting for the stock.
The challenge with biotechs, when compared with commodities stocks, is that there's no gold price or oil price to point you in the right direction.
So instead, we rely on news, social media, and conversations to find the macro themes before they become obvious.
Right now, one theme keeps popping up.
Peptides.
Most Australians remember peptides as the performance-enhancing substances that landed the Essendon Football Club in one of the biggest scandals in AFL history.
But peptides are back.
(and this time it’s consumers choosing them)
Since the explosion of GLP-1 weight loss drugs like Ozempic and Wegovy (which are also peptides, by the way), a whole new wave of interest has emerged around what else these short-chain amino acids can do.
Lose weight. Look younger. Recover faster.
(That's the promise, at least!)
On the weekend, this video popped up on my Instagram feed from a mainstream news outlet targeted at young Australians…
“Why peptides are blowing up on social media”
Right alongside the two other major macro topics: Fuel Prices and AI.
SBS News ran a deep dive segment on the topic this week:
And many other news stories have been run in mainstream media:
The natural questions people are asking:
Are these safe?
Why are people doing it?
What comes next?
The reality is that peptides have captured the consumer imagination.
While it is legal to buy peptides with a prescription, many consumers are turning to the grey market to access these substances off-label.
In Australia, the TGA has historically leaned towards shutting things down quickly.
In the US, under RFK Jr., the going in a different direction: less friction, more access.
(Source WSJ)
Now with peptides in the spotlight, I wanted to find a way to “bet” on this theme.
That was one of the reasons I named Tetratherix (ASX: TTX), as my first-ever Armchair Pick.
Tetratherix has a platform technology with a range of applications that is liquid at room temperature and hardens in the body.
There are several different markets it is targeting right now; the sixth and most recent is the delivery of precision medicines like GLP-1s, hormones, and peptides.
Read the full article here: My First Armchair Pick: Tetratherix (ASX: TTX)
Two weeks ago, TTX signed a US$30 million, 10-year deal with Superpower Health, specifically to use its nasal delivery technology to deliver these molecules.
This matters because one of the biggest challenges with peptides is delivery.
Injections aren't for everyone; needle phobia is real, and it limits the addressable market significantly.
TTX's technology works differently. It sprays into the nose and sticks - allowing for the slow, controlled release of the payload directly into the bloodstream. Unlike regular nasal sprays, which just fall straight back out.
I asked CEO Will Knox to send through a quick demo.
Notice how the spray “sticks” to the back of the nose and doesn’t fall out.
The way I see it, TTX could be selling the picks and shovels to the biggest emerging trend in healthcare right now.
Watch this space.
See you all tomorrow,
The Armchair Analyst.
